Questions tagged [odds]

The odds of an event is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen (p) to the probability that it will not happen (1-p).

The odds of an event is the quotient of the probability of the event divided by the probability the event will not occur: $$ \text{odds}=\frac{\text{probability}}{1-\text{probability}} $$ The odds of a fair coin are $1=\frac{.50}{.50}$. If a probability is $<50\%$, the odds will be $<1$, and if $>50\%$, then $>1$. Odds can range from $(0,~\infty)$.

In some ways, it can be more useful to work with odds than probabilities, even though people often feel the latter are more intuitive. Specifically, odds and odds ratios are very helpful in logistic regression.

Outside of a statistical context, people are familiar with odds being presented in a manner such as $3:2$. This format is called 'Las Vegas' odds (actually, the 'odds' presented in a casino are not the actual odds of winning / losing, but rather the payouts associated with winning or losing). In a statistical context, however, we divide through and present a single number (e.g., $1.5$).

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What is the difference between logistic and logit regression?

What is the difference between logistic and logit regression? I understand that they are similar (or even the same thing) but could someone explain the difference(s) between these two? Is one about odds?
user3788557
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Probability that Secret Santa arrangement will result in perfect pairings

So, we had Secret Santa at work. We're 8 people. We each took turns and pulled a small piece of paper from a bowl with a name on it. The only rule : If you pull your name, you have to put the piece of paper back in the bowl and try again. Let's…
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How can I predict the odds that a dodgeball team is going to win based on the winning history of its players?

Imagine there are 80 dodgeball players in the world. Each of them has played thousands of dodgeball games with the other 79 players in more-or-less random order. This is a world without teams (e.g., every player has a chance of being drafted in…
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Odds made simple

I am having some trouble in understanding odds, and I would like just a basic explanation for how to interpret them. I have found various posts related to odds but most of them are more complex than what I am trying to understand. Here is an example…
Davd
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Why use odds and not probability in logistic regression?

Why would we use odds instead of probabilities when performing logistic regression?
Kenny
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Odds and odds ratios in logistic regression

I am having difficulties understanding one logistic regression explanation. The logistic regression is between temperature and fish which die or do not die. The slope of a logistic regression is 1.76. Then the odds that fish die increase by a…
Eddie
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Prerequisite for conversion from odds ratio to relative risk to be valid

as question, since we can do the conversion from odds ratio (p1/q1)/(p2/q2) to relative risk (p1/(p1+q1))/(p2/(p2+q2)) fairly easily, I wonder if there is anything that I need to pay attention before doing this? It is obvious that if I am doing a…
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How to test a linear relationship between log odds and predictors before performing logistic regression?

In case of a linear regression, it's easy to test a linear relationship between a continuous dependent variable and each independent variable. For example, I can plot a scatter plot between the dependent variable on Y-axis and one of independent…
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Why is relative risk not valid in case control studies?

I'm getting my information from: http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/ep/ep713_analyticoverview/EP713_AnalyticOverview5.html It says that in a case-control study, you can not compute the probability of disease in each exposure group because…
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A statistical interaction is significant, but the author denies it. Why?

I am evaluating a journal article regarding its statistical interactions. The article is trying to establish a relationship between less-tight control of blood pressure and progression to severe hypertension. It suspects that pre-existing…
user2513881
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Flipping Coins : Probability of Sequences vs Probability of Individuals

Here is a problem I thought of: Suppose I am watching someone flip a fair coin. Each flip is completely independent from the previous flip. I watch this person flip 3 consecutive heads. I interrupt this person and make the following offer: If the…
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Can I calculate this Bayesian line without needing to simulate every point?

Kahneman and Tversky mention that in this graph the value of (high prior group)/(low prior group) should be 5.44. Kahneman and Tversky call the curved line a "Bayesian line" and I believe I understand how it works. For instance, if the probability…
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Probabilities vs. Odds Ratios

Suppose we know that the probability of a female getting into a program are $p=.7$ and $q=1-.7=.3$ for males. Then we know: $$\mbox{odds}(\mbox{female}) = .7/.3 = 2.33333$$ $$\mbox{odds}(\mbox{male}) = .3/.7 = .42857$$ We could use this information…
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Differences between logistic regression parameter estimates and Cox-proportional hazard parameters

We have been working on a survival analysis. We are examining tree seedling survival over a decade with annual to biannual census intervals. We have been using the package coxme in R for a mixed effects Cox model. Covariates include…
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How to get log odds from these results of logistic regression

I have performed logistic regression (using 'LOGIT') on variables from titanic dataset. The formula used is: survived ~ age + sex + pclass I have obtained results as follows: ==================== Summary() ==================== …
rnso
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