Questions tagged [linear-dynamical-system]

Dynamic linear models refers to modeling problems where coefficients (as in regression) are allowed to vary with time. This is the so called state-space approach.

A dynamic linear model (DLM) is a state space approach to time series modeling. The general form of normal DLMs for univariate time series of equally spaced observations takes the following form:

$${\bf y}_t = {\bf F'}_t{\bf \theta}_t + {\bf \nu}_t$$ $${\bf \theta}_t = {\bf G}_t {\bf \theta}_{t-1} + {\bf w}_t$$

Where $\nu_t \sim N(0,v_t)$ and $w_t \sim N(0, W_t)$ and are IID. One can show that linear regression, AR, ARMA, polynomial regression and Fourier series can be written as special cases of the above general form.

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Forward Filtering Backwards Sampling (FFBS) and Look-Ahead Bias

Assumptions / Context: Let's assume that I have data that can be modeled as a dynamic linear model. To estimate the parameters (e.g., covariance matrix of the state/system equation), I use a Gibbs sampling or other Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
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Forecasting in a state-space model from a Bayesian perspective

We have the following state-space model(or linear dynamical model): \begin{align} x_t&\sim N(Ax_{t-1},Q)\\ y_t&\sim N(Bx_{t},\Sigma) \end{align} I want to obtain a sample from $p(y_{T+1}\mid y_{1:T})$. $$p(y_{T+1}\mid y_{1:T})=\int p(y_{T+1}\mid…
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Help on statistical modeling of pedestrian flow in subways

I'm a New Yorker and take the subways every day. I have a growing interest in understanding the distribution of paths people take on the subways to work every day. I.e. if there are $n$ subway stations, I want a temporal distribution over the paths…
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Model selection and parameter estimation in forecasting with a Dynamic Linear Model

I am implementing a general purpose prediction tool for time series. I want to tolerate missing values, so I decided to settle for DLMs. To make it as relevant as possible on a large number of datasets, I want it to try several different models and…
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How to include prior knowledge that a model might be able to figure out itself

I have a problem where I want to predict the outcome of a sequence given another sequence online. Let $(x_1, x_2, ... x_T)$ be denoted by $x_{1:T}$, then I am estimating: $$ p(y_T|x_{1:T}) $$ where $y_t \in Y, x_t \in X~\forall t$. That is, given a…
bayerj
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How to add stochastic drift in dynamic linear model?

As I'm not able to comment (yet), my question follows the one raised by @mzuba here I would like to use the DLM R package to model the local linear trend model, which unlike mzuba specified, has a stochastic trend. The the model would be something…
Ben
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Estimation from two observations

Suppose there are two vector signals $x$, $z$. The observer 1 receives a linear version of $x$ plus Gaussian noise. Observer 2 receives a linear sum of both $x$ and $z$ plus Gaussian noise as shown…
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Do stochastic chaotic systems decorrelate with time?

Assume I have a dynamical system with additive process noise of the form $$\mathbf{x}_{t} = \mathbf{F}\left(\mathbf{x_{t-1}}\right) + \mathbf{\epsilon}$$ where $\mathbf{x}_{t}$ is the state at time $t$ and $\mathbf{\epsilon}$ is some form of…
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How to numerically solve a matrix differential equation in R?

I have interest in using the R language and environment to numerically solve a system of linear ordinary differential equations. The numerical solver, deSolve, handles this just fine when I write and equation for each equation. For…
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Learning a mapping from one time series to another with a Kalman Filter

I am interested in finding the relation between two (possibly multi dimensional) time series $x_{1:T}$ and $y_{1:T}$. I wonder how I can do that with a linear dynamical system/Kalman filter. My approach would be sth like estimating the parameters…
bayerj
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How to ensure covariance matrix is positive semi definite in linear dynamical model learning?

I am trying to learn a linear dynamical model for a data using expectation-maximization algorithm. The model is defined as follows: $$x_0 \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_0 ,\Sigma_0)$$ $$ x_{t+1} = Fx_t + w_t, \hspace{7pt} w_t\sim \mathcal{N}(\mu^s ,Q)…
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State Space model question

I am looking for some help with estimating Space state model of this form: $r_{t} = r^{*}_{t} + \pi + \varepsilon_{1}$ $R_{t}= r^{*}_{t} + \alpha + \pi + \varepsilon_{2}$ $r^{*}_{t} = r^{*}_{t-1} + \phi_{1}$ $\alpha_{t} = \mu_{0} + \mu_{1}…
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Exogenous variable in the state equation in statespace MLEmodel in statsmodels

I'm trying to fit the following model: $y_t = \left[\begin{matrix} (1-w) & 1 & w \end{matrix}\right] \left[\begin{matrix} d_t \\ \mu_t \\ m_t \end{matrix}\right] + \mathcal{N}(0,\sigma_\eta^2) $ $ \left[\begin{matrix} d_{t+1} \\ \mu_{t+1} \\…
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Approximate a time-discrete linear-dynamical-system using a neural network, when only partial measurements are available

I want to use a simple neural network to approximate a linear time-discrete state-space model, given by the equation: $$\boldsymbol{x}_{k+1} = \mathbf{A} \: \boldsymbol{x}_k$$ with $$\boldsymbol{x} = (x_1 \; x_2 \; x_3 \; x_4 )^T$$ I want to…
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Getting started with Bayesian Dynamic Networks?

Dagum developed DBNs to unify and extend traditional linear state-space models such as Kalman filters, linear and normal forecasting models such as ARMA and simple dependency models such as hidden Markov models into a general probabilistic…
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