Questions tagged [state-space-models]

It describes the probabilistic dependence between the latent state variable and the observed measurement.

State space model (SSM) refers to a class of probabilistic graphical model (Koller and Friedman, 2009) that describes the probabilistic dependence between the latent state variable and the observed measurement. The state or the measurement can be either continuous or discrete. The term “state space” originated in 1960s in the area of control engineering (Kalman, 1960). SSM provides a general framework for analyzing deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems that are measured or observed through a stochastic process. The SSM framework has been successfully applied in engineering, statistics, computer science and economics to solve a broad range of dynamical systems problems. Other terms used to describe SSMs are hidden Markov models (HMMs) (Rabiner, 1989) and latent process models. The most well studied SSM is the Kalman filter, which defines an optimal algorithm for inferring linear Gaussian systems. Source.

In control engineering, a state-space representation is a mathematical model of a physical system as a set of input, output and state variables related by first-order differential equations. "State space" refers to the space whose axes are the state variables. The state of the system can be represented as a vector within that space. Source.

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What are the properties of a half Cauchy distribution?

I am currently working on a problem, where I need to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for a state space model. To be able to solve the problem, I have been given the following probability of $\tau$: p($\tau$) =…
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Switch from Modelling a Process using a Poisson Distribution to use a Negative Binomial Distribution?

$\newcommand{\P}{\mathbb{P}}$We have a random process that may-or-may-not occur multiple times in a set period of time $T$. We have a data feed from a pre-existing model of this process, that provides the probability of a number of events occurring…
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How to interpret PCA on time-series data?

I am trying to understand the use of PCA in a recent journal article titled "Mapping brain activity at scale with cluster computing" Freeman et al., 2014 (free pdf available on the lab website). They use PCA on time series data, and use the PCA…
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How to check which model is better in state space time series analysis?

I am doing time series data analysis by state space methods. With my data the stochastic local level model totally outperformed the deterministic one. But the deterministic level and slope model gives better results than with stochastic level and…
user3462
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Estimation of ARMA: state space vs. alternatives

I am interested in estimation of ARMA models. I understand that a popular approach is to write the model down in the state space form and then maximize the likelihood of the model using some optimization routine. Question: Why rewrite the model…
Richard Hardy
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State space representation of ARMA(p,q) from Hamilton

I have been reading Hamilton Chapter 13 and he has the following state space representation for an ARMA(p,q). Let $r = \max(p,q+1)$.Then the ARMA (p,q) process is as follows: $$ \begin{aligned} y_t -\mu &= \phi_1(y_{t-1} -\mu) + \phi_2(y_{t-2}…
dleal
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Dynamic factor analysis vs state space model

The MARSS package in R offers function for dynamic factor analysis. In this package, the dynamic factor model is written as a special form of state space model and they assume the common trends follow AR(1) process. As I am not very familiar with…
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Identifiability of a state space model (Dynamic Linear Model)

Take a general linear Gaussian state space model (SSM)(aka Dynamic Linear Model DLM): \begin{align} X_{t+1} &= FX_t + V_t \\ Y &= HX_t+W_t \\[10pt] V_t &\sim N(0,Q) \\ W_t &\sim N(0,R) \\ \end{align} I am interested in the…
Baz
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Kalman filter vs. smoothing splines

Q: For which data is it appropriate to use state-space modeling and Kalman filtering instead of smoothing splines and vice versa? Is there some equivalence relationship between the two? I'm trying to get some high-level understanding of how these…
lowndrul
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Explaining Kalman filters in state space models

What are the steps involved in the use of Kalman filters in state space models? I have seen a couple of different formulations, but I'm not sure about the details. For example, Cowpertwait starts with this set of equations: $$y_{t} =…
Robert Smith
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Why is forecasting of ARMA models performed by Kalman filter

What are the advantages of expressing an ARMA model as a state-space-model and do forecasting using a Kalman filter? This methodology is for example used in the SARIMAX implementation of…
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R examples for Durbin & Koopman "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods"

I was wondering if anyone has ported the examples from Durbin & Koopman "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods" to R? You can find RATS code for the examples online and obviosly SsfPack/Ox but no signs of an R companion for this book...
Dr G
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Coding resources: Accessible introductions to Bayesian Structural Time series?

Hey, all. I am asking this question in not necessarily a "subjectively recommend something for me" approach, but with a clear focus on just an accessible beginner's reference. My situation is I have been learning the theory behind Bayesian…
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How to determine appropriate lagged features for learning systems with states?

In much of machine learning literature, the systems being modelled are instantaneous. Inputs -> outputs, with no notion of impact from past values. In some systems, inputs from previous time-steps are relevant, e.g. because the system has internal…
naught101
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What's the model representation for the first difference of a local level model?

This is my first exercise for space state models and I've a few questions I'd need to resolve before I actually start doing the exercise. Unfortunately, I'm self teaching (I have no professor to ask) and I'm afraid there's no solution companion for…
mugen
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