Questions tagged [stochastic-processes]

A stochastic process describes the evolution of random variables/systems over time and/or space and/or any other index set. It has applications in areas such as econometrics, weather, signal processing, etc. Examples: Gaussian process, Markov process, etc.

A stochastic process is a collection of random variables ${\bf X} = \{ X_t : t \in T \}$ defined on a common probability space, taking values in a common set $S$ (state space), and indexed by set $T$, often either $\mathbb{N}$ or $[0, \infty)$, and thought of as time (either continuous or discrete). (Reference: Random Services)

Common examples of stochastic processes are:

  • Random Walks
    • Simple random walk: defined on the integers in discrete time, and is based on a Bernoulli process, where each $iid$ Bernoulli variable takes either the value $+1$ or $-1$.
  • Bernoulli Process
    • A sequence of $iid$ Bernoulli random variables, where each event is a Bernoulli trial.
  • Wiener Process
    • Stochastic process with stationary and independent increments whose size is normally distributed.
  • Poisson Process
    • Defined as a counting process, which is a process that represents the random number of points or events up to some time.
    • The number of points of the process that are located in the interval from zero to some (given, non-random) time is a Poisson random variable.
  • Markov Chains (both continuous and discrete time)
    • The behavior of the process in the future is stochastically independent of its behavior in the past, given the current state of the process.
  • Martingales
    • A discrete-time or continuous-time stochastic processes with the property that the expectation of the next value of a martingale is equal to the current value given all the previous values of the process.

(Reference: Wikipedia)

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What does a "closed-form solution" mean?

I have come across the term "closed-form solution" quite often. What does a closed-form solution mean? How does one determine if a close-form solution exists for a given problem? Searching online, I found some information, but nothing in the context…
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Is a time series the same as a stochastic process?

A stochastic process is a process that evolves over time, so is it really a fancier way of saying "time series"?
Victor
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Why does the variance of the Random walk increase?

The random walk that is defined as $Y_{t} = Y_{t-1} + e_t$, where $e_t$ is white noise. Denotes that the current position is the sum of the previous position + an unpredicted term. You can prove that the mean function $\mu_t = 0 $, since $$E(Y_{t})…
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The "Amazing Hidden Power" of Random Search?

I have the following question that compares random search optimization with gradient descent optimization: Based on the (amazing) answer provided over here Optimization when Cost Function Slow to Evaluate , I realized something really interesting…
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Time taken to hit a pattern of heads and tails in a series of coin-tosses

Inspired by Peter Donnelly's talk at TED, in which he discusses how long it would take for a certain pattern to appear in a series of coin tosses, I created the following script in R. Given two patterns 'hth' and 'htt', it calculates how long it…
lafrasu
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What are examples of statistical experiments that allow the calculation of the golden ratio?

There are some very simple experiences that can be done by a kid at home, whose result allows one to statistically approach famous numbers such as $\pi$ or $e$. An example where $\pi$ shows up is perhaps the most famous one of its kind. In Buffon's…
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Intuitive explanation for periodicity in Markov chains

Can someone explain me in a intuitive way what the periodicity of a Markov chain is? It is defined as follows: For all states $i$ in $S$ $d_i$=gcd$\{n \in \mathbb{N} | p_{ii}^{(n)} > 0\} =1$ Thank you for your effort!
Chris
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How likely am I to be descended from a particular person born in the year 1300?

In other words, based on the following, what is p? In order to make this a math problem rather than anthropology or social science, and to simplify the problem, assume that mates are selected with equal probability across the population, except that…
xpda
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How to create a multivariate Brownian Bridge?

It is known, that a standard multivariate Brownian bridge $ y(\mathbf u) $ is a centered Gaussian process with covariance function $$ \mathbb E(y(\mathbf u) y(\mathbf v)) = \prod_{j=1}^d (u_j \wedge v_j) - \prod_{j=1}^d u_j v_j $$ I am not sure…
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How do betting houses determine betting odds for sports?

Let's take football (soccer) for example. There are 3 possible outcomes, home win, draw, away win. I took a random game from bet365 Turkey vs Ukraine hwin, draw, awin 2.20 3.40 3.20 So for investment of 100\$ on given result, you either loose…
enedene
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Wavelet-domain Gaussian processes: what is the covariance?

I've been reading Maraun et al, "Nonstationary Gaussian processes in wavelet domain: Synthesis, estimation, and significant testing" (2007) which defines a class of non-stationary GPs that can be specified by multipliers in wavelet domain. A…
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What are the main differences between Granger's and Pearl's causality frameworks?

Recently, I ran across several papers and online resources that mention Granger causality. Brief browsing through the corresponding Wikipedia article left me with the impression that this term refers to causality in the context of time series (or,…
Aleksandr Blekh
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What are some techniques for sampling two correlated random variables?

What are some techniques for sampling two correlated random variables: if their probability distributions are parameterized (e.g., log-normal) if they have non-parametric distributions. The data are two time series for which we can compute…
Pete
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How will studying "stochastic processes" help me as a statistician?

I wish to decide if I should take a course called "INTRODUCTION TO STOCHASTIC PROCESSES" which will be held next semester in my University. I asked the lecturer how studying such a course would help me as a statistician, he said that since he comes…
Tal Galili
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How do you see a Markov chain is irreducible?

I have some trouble understanding the Markov chain property irreducible. Irreducible is said to mean that the stochastic process can "go from any state to any state". But what defines whether it can go from state $i$ to state $j$, or cannot go? The…
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