Questions tagged [differencing]

Differencing is a time series transformation used for removing unit roots. It can be simple or seasonal (for seasonal unit roots), first-order or higher-order (for multiple unit roots), also fractional order. Do NOT confuse with tag *differences*

Differencing is a time series transformation used for removing unit roots. First-order differencing of a series $x_t$ produces a series $\Delta x_t:=x_t-x_{t-h}$ and removes a single unit root. Simple differencing uses $h=1$, seasonal differencing uses $h=\text{# of seasons}$. Higher-order differencing consists of consecutive applications of first-order differencing: $\Delta^d x_t:=\Delta(\Delta^{d-1}x_t)$ and removes multiple ($d>1$) unit roots.

Fractional-order differencing is also possible and is defined by $\Delta^d x_t := x_t - d x_{t-1} + \frac{d(d-1)}{2!} x_{t-2} - \frac{d(d-1)(d-2)}{3!} x_{t-3} + \dots +(-1)^{k+1} \frac{d(d-1) \cdot \dots \cdot (d-k)}{k!} x_{t-k} + \dots$.

Differencing a time series that does not have a unit root results in overdifferencing that is problematic. Common examples of overdifferencing are (1) differencing a time series with a linear or polynomial time trend to remove the trend and (2) differencing a seasonal time series attempting to remove non-unit-root seasonality.

Do not confuse with tag .

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For purely descriptive purposes, is it okay to run correlations between two non stationary series?

I have been obsessed with trying to conduct an analysis in the “correct” way. I read that no time series analysis should be conducted on non stationary series. I found both my series have a unit root and therefore are non stationary, so I’ve been…
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Order of integration of a time series process

I am having trouble solving the order of integration of a time series process. Consider the following processes: \begin{align*} \epsilon_t &\sim i.i.d.(0,1) \\ x_t &= \alpha x_{t-1}+\epsilon_t \\ y_t &= y_{t-1}+x_t \\ z_t &=…
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Problem with ets function diagnostic for model with trend and seasonality

I have been meaning to fit an exponential smoothing model to a monthly series that looks like the one below: When I decompose the series it is almost evident that we have seasonality and also there seems to be an exponential trend in the series.…
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Why difference a time series for forecasting?

From various econometrics/time series analysis/forecasting texts I take that it is common practice to difference time series that have a stochastic trend before modeling them with forecasting models. I assumed that this somehow improves…
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If B is my backshift operator then how do I calculate (1 - B)?

I understand that $(1 - B)x_{t}=x_{t}-x_{t-1}$. I understand that I can do algebra with $B$, treating it like any other variable. But can I do arithmetic operations with $B$? Like, can I subtract $B$ from 1? If so, what do I get? Does $B$ have a…
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Differencing Time Series

I am trying to remove the trends by differencing this logarithmically transformed time series. It contains two columns about COVID-19 Cases in the United States: one column being the number of cases and the other column being the date…
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modelling on differenced data

I have a time-series data that I want to model using machine learning models like Lasso Regression, Ridge, elastic net, etc. However, in order to make it stationary, I difference the output variable, which is resulting in negative values being…
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Intuition of second order differencing dependent variable on non-differencing independent regressor regression?

I have two time series sequences. One is $y_t$, which is non-stationary, and the other is $x_t$, which is stationary. Suppose I would like to do a regression of $y_t$ on $x_t$ to forecast $y_t$. The second order differencing on $y_t$ which is…
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Is HEGY or CH test better in a small sample (40 monthly observations)?

I have a time series of monthly data that is 40 observations ($3\frac{1}{3}$ seasonal cycles) long. HEGY test and CH test give contradicting results w.r.t. presence of a seasonal unit root. HEGY test gives that series have seasonal unit roots while…
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Time series rejects the null hypothesis for ADF test with drift no trend. Is the time series stationary? Must I differentiate?

TL;DR: My time series passes a ADF test with drift no trend. So, should I leave my data alone and proceed? Or do still need to differentiate it before modelling, because it has drift? Or have I made an error in my process? I am struggling to…
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Can I use all estimates in a first differenced regression to apply to levels?

I have a time series y where I took the first differences, y’, and an independent variable x where I also took the first differences to get x’. When I run a regression between y’ and independent variable x’, I get: y’ = Bx’ and Pearson r = r I am…
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VAR Model with different integration order

I am trying to create a VAR model with 4 variables. 3 of them need 2 differences in order to be stationary, while 1 needs only 1. When I take differences I loose one row of data, so there is one variable with one row more than the others. Should I…
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Checking the first difference of a process which is already stationary

Knowing that a process is already stationary (i.e. I(0) and ADF test for presence of unit root has been rejected), is there any need to check the first difference? If yes, what is the rationale/application of it? Any help is appreciated.
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Mean and Variance of a Differenced Time Series

Suppose I am differencing a time series. I decide to try out differencing for $d=1, 2$, and $3$ where $d$ is the order of the differencing (by convention of the R function diff()). If $d=2$ illustrates a smaller mean and variance than the other…
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How do I transform first-differenced impulse response functions back into levels?

I am estimating a structural VAR where all my variables are I(1). I took the log differences of each variable and generated the impulse response functions. Is there a way to convert the impulse response functions back to levels?
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