Pertaining to Croston's method for forecasting intermittent demands.
Croston's original article: Croston, J. D. Forecasting and stock control for intermittent demands. Operational Research Quarterly, 1972, 23, 289-303
Questions tagged [crostons-method]
22 questions
20
votes
1 answer
Analysis of time series with many zero values
This problem is actually about fire detection, but it is strongly analogous to some radioactive decay detection problems. The phenomena being observed is both sporadic and highly variable; thus, a time series will consist of long strings of zeroes…
Ed Hyer
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13
votes
1 answer
How to compare forecasting methods?
I have several intermittent data. Based on those data, I would like to compare several forecasting methods (Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Croston, and Syntetos-Boylan), and decide whether Croston or Syntetos Boylan is better than SES or MA…
Fikri
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9
votes
1 answer
Explain the croston method of R
I am using crost() function of R for analyzing and forecasting intermittent demand/slow
moving items time series. I am having difficulty in understanding the output. Could anyone help in understanding the model in layman's terms.
Below is the code…
Arushi
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7
votes
2 answers
Forecasting daily time series sales revenue with many zero entries
I have been trying to forecast the sales revenue of different product groups (the displayed sales revenue is aggregated over all products for each day e.g. smartphones with different prices as one group) but haven't found the right approach yet. I…
Folanir
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6
votes
2 answers
Forecasting daily time series with many zeros
I need to forecast a univariate time-series of sales data with the following characterica.
It is a daily time-series
Around 70-80 % of the date nothing is sold ($x_t = 0$)
At the 20-30 % remaining days there is a positive integer numberof sales
The…
Ferdi
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4
votes
2 answers
Forecasting irregular pattern and volume
I have tried a number of different models to forecast the time series shown below, but so far I haven't found any models that satisfy me. I am looking for ideas for a suitable model.
The objective of the forecasting is two-fold:
predicting the…
Jochem
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4
votes
2 answers
Forecasting Intermittent Demand with zeroes in times series
I am trying to forecast intermittent demand (slow movers and extreme slow movers).
Here's the type of data I am working with
weekly data so I cannot really group it
has zeroes in time series
not sure if seasonal (at least not visibly)
Based on…
Hopes_High
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3
votes
2 answers
Quicker way to optimize alpha parameter in croston model using R
I have the following R code:
library("forecast")
library("rbenchmark")
v <- c(95.3, 96.8, 97.2, 97.9, 98.2, 98.5, 99.3, 99.9, 102.7, 104.2, 107.2, 109.3, 109.8, 110.5, 111.2, 111.6, 112.6, 113.5, 114.3, 115, 117.4, 119, 119.3, 120.1, 120.7, 121.1,…
James Crosswell
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3
votes
1 answer
Croston forecasting initialization
I have been working with the Croston method but I have many doubts.
The method says that if demand $x_t$ at period $t$ is $x_t= 0$ then $\hat{z}(t) = \hat{z}(t-1)$ and $\hat{n}(t) = \hat{n}(t-1)$, but what do we do at the first observation?
How do…
Andreia Carraca
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3
votes
1 answer
How to detect intermittent time series?
I need to automatically identify if a time series is intermittent or not. Depending on the result I'll use one or another method for forecasting it.
Is there any test to detect intermittent time series?
João Daniel
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2
votes
3 answers
How to forecast demand with time series and/or other models?
I need to forecast data which has many periods of zero demand, also there is no seasonality or trend in the data.
I tried ARIMA, but it converges to the mean. I also applied some predictors, but they don't affect the forecast significantly. What…
Sid Verma
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2
votes
1 answer
Croston forecasting h-step ahead forecast with last n values being zero
I found some literature that explained the Croston's method I'm trying to implement for forecasting. The source explains the method like the picture below.
The way I understand this, you could see two sets of data, one indexed by $t$, and one…
Grafit
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1
vote
2 answers
Croston method with python, demand doesn't effect forecast properly?
I tried to use croston method for intermittent forecasting via croston package which is available in below link:
https://pypi.org/project/croston/
below code creates a sample ts and creates forecast via croston method.
import pandas as pd
…
Tyr
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1
vote
1 answer
How to forecast intermittent demand when the future days with 0 demand are known in advance
I have an intermittent time series of the demand of some products. I have read some very useful answers (such as Forecasting Intermittent Demand with zeroes in times series ) as to how one would go about predicting such time series.
In my case…
User2321
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1
vote
1 answer
Combining Intermittent Demand and ARIMA
I have a time series dataset, where a customer may purchase fuel one week and not purchase again for 2-3 weeks. I need to forecast when a customer is likely to purchase and how much they will spend. As such, all the literature is pointing to using…
Mo van Praag
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