Questions tagged [chow-test]

The Chow test is a test for parameter stability between time periods or different groups.

The Chow test is used to test for structural breaks over time or for differences between subgroups of a sample. Suppose you have a general linear model of the form $$y_i = \alpha + \beta X_i + \epsilon_i$$ and you want to test whether $\beta$ is the same for two groups, $A$ and $B$, i.e. $\beta_A = \beta_B$. For the following regression $$y = \alpha + \beta_1 X_i + \beta_2 (X_i\cdot D_A) + \beta_3 D_A + \epsilon_i $$ where $D_A = 1$ for units of group $A$ and zero otherwise, a Chow test is a simple F test on the coefficients $\beta_2$ and $\beta_3$. A rejection of this F test ($\beta_2 \neq 0$ and $\beta_3 \neq 0$) means that $\beta$ is not the same across the two groups. The coefficient $\beta_2$ gives the difference between the two groups $\beta_A - \beta_B$.

The group example easily extends to the time-series context where a structural break Chow test is performed by comparing the hypothesized pre- and post-break periods. For an example how to implement the Chow test in Stata and also with multiple groups is provided in a Stata FAQ article by William Gould.

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Chow test or not?

I am trying to set up an automatic screen to detect structural breaks in large numbers of time series. The time series are weekly and represent behaviour of customers. I have set up a Chow test. I use the most recent 4 weeks and compare it to the…
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How to identify structural change using a Chow test on Eviews?

I have this little problem and I would appreciate some help. As part of my master thesis, I have to identify a trend in a univariate (GDP) time series for different countries. I have to separate the trend and the stochastic element in it for each…
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Chow Test: Do you need stationarity to model a time-series for identifying structural breaks?

What am I trying to achieve? I am trying to test whether there is a structural break in a time-series of proportions at a known break date (21 Dec 2019) . Below is a plot of the original time-series (top panel) and its STL decomposition:. What…
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Can I modify the Chow Statistic for use with ARIMAx models?

I'm trying to come up with a test for parameter constancy that's general enough to use for both OLS models and ARIMAx models. In all cases, we have non-stochastic exogenous variables. Here's the chow prediction interval statistic for OLS with $k$…
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Identifying structural breaks in regression with Chow test

I have some problems in using (and finding) the Chow test for structural breaks in a regression analysis using R. I want to find out if there are some structural changes including another variable (represents 3 spatial subregions). Namely, is the…
user3814
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How to test if coefficients of two linear regressions differ in practice?

The Chow test is often suggested to test if the coefficients of two linear regressions differ or if a single linear regressions is more appropriate. However, Chow test assumes equality of the variances of the regressions' residuals, which might not…
Funkwecker
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Why is the Chow test with $R^2$ wrong?

The regular way to compute the F-value for a Chow forecast test is: $$F=\frac{(e_R'e_R-e_1'e_1)/g}{e_1'e_1/(n-k)}$$ My professor said something today about that a Chow forecast test using $R^2$ would be wrong, because the number of observations in…
abc
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How to do Chow test for constancy of parameters across 2 groups

I am a beginner in statistics and poor in mathematics. I am trying to to assess effect of intervention in one state versus another using annual data. My data are State 1 State 2 Cases Deaths Cases Deaths 2004 1125 5 2024 …
DrWho
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How to tell if the relationship between time series variables changes over time?

Lets start out by saying that I'm a novice with statistics. I'm looking to analyze the relationship between Return on Sales (ROS) and Asset Turnover (TAT) over time to see how they impact firm profitability (Return on Assets (ROA)). I have a few…
rwdvc
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Detecting for structural changes in a time series near the end

My interest is to check for structural changes in a time series. I know the time point which I wish to check for structural break. This point happens to be near the end of the series. Also I am doing a univariate modeling on the series (so no other…
Dayne
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Chow breakpoint test for all series points

How appropriate would be, if you perform Chow breakpoint test for all points within series (without the very beginning and very ending), then find out where test suggest possible breakpoints (e.g. there are 4-5 points) and analyze them from visual…
Marqz
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Chow tests for "poolability" with panel data

Say I have a regression model: $$ Y = a + bX + cW + e $$ Suppose I have a balanced panel data set for $m$ populations over $n$ time periods. I want to know if I can pool all the data into one single Constant Coefficients model ($a$, $b$ and $c$ are…
cb foster
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Question about Chow forecast test

I would like to check my understanding of the Chow Forecast test.The test is used to perform a test on the following models: $y_1=\beta X+\epsilon_1$ and $y_2=\beta X+ \nu + \epsilon_2$, with $H_0:\nu=0$ and $H_1: \nu\neq 0$. Now I wonder whether…
abc
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Stationarity and homoscedasticity in break tests

Let me start by saying that I'm really not an expert in statistics/econometrics. Now to my questions: I have a data set containing weekly prices of a stock. I want to check whether a structural break has occurred at a specific date using a Chow…
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Chow's test and serially correlated model errors

how can one handle a time series with the Chow's test (in order to find a structural break) so that the assumption of independent model errors holds? I'm using the R function chow.test {gap}
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