Questions tagged [cointegration]

Two or more non-stationary, integrated variables are cointegrated if there exists a linear combination of those variables which is integrated of a lower order, e.g. stationary.

Two or more non-stationary, integrated variables are cointegrated if there exists a linear combination of those variables which is integrated of a lower order, e.g. stationary. This implies that there is some equilibrium relationship between these variables.

Formally, for a $k\times 1$ vector of $I(d)$ variables $x_t$ with $d=1,2,\dots$, cointegration requires that there exists a vector $\beta$ such that $\beta^\top x_t$ is $I(d')$ with $d'<d$. For $\beta^i$, $i = 1,...,r$, $x_t$ is cointegrated with cointegrating rank $r$ and $\beta^i$s are called cointegrating vectors. A relevant special case is when $x_t$s are all $I(1)$ (e.g. random walks) and $\beta^\top x_t$ is $I(0)$.

Note that usually $\beta$ is normalized by restricting one of its elements by setting it equal to one. Also variables must be integrated of the same order, e.g. an $I(1)$ and an $I(2)$ variable cannot be cointegrated. However, between a set of three (or more) variables which are not integrated of the same order there may be a linear combination of the first two variables that cointegrates with the third.

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Time series 'clustering' in R

I have a set of time series data. Each series covers the same period, although the actual dates in each time series may not all 'line up' exactly. That is to say, if the Time series were to be read into a 2D matrix, it would look something like…
morpheous
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Why use vector error correction model?

I am confused about the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Technical background: VECM offers a possibility to apply Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) to integrated multivariate time series. In the textbooks they name some problems in applying a…
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Does a cointegration model exist for irregularly spaced time series?

It isn't clear to me how to calculate cointegration with irregular time series (ideally using the Johansen test with VECM). My initial thought would be to regularize the series and interpolate missing values, although that may bias the…
Shane
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What is the correct procedure to choose the lag when performing Johansen cointegration test?

When preforming Johansen Cointegration test for 2 time series (the simple case) you need to decide the lag you want to use. Doing the test for different lags return different results: for some lag levels the null hypothesis can be rejected but for…
Freewind
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Test for cointegration between two time series using Engle–Granger two-step method

I am seeking to test for cointegration between two time series. Both series have weekly data spanning ~3 years. I am trying to do the Engle-Granger Two Step Method. My order of operations follows. Test each time series for unit root via Augmented…
d0rmLife
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Johansen test for cointegration

I am testing for cointegration using the Johansen test. I have seen questions like how to interpret the test results, but when I am interpreting mine I have some doubts. In my results r = 3 since 4.10 < 10.49, so I cannot form a stationary series.…
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Resources for learning about spurious time series regression

"Spurious regression" (in the context of time series) and associated terms like unit root tests are something I've heard a lot about, but never understood. Why/when, intuitively, does it occur? (I believe it's when your two time series are…
raegtin
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When can you apply the bootstrap to time series models?

Under what circumstances can you apply re-sampling techniques to quantify the uncertainty about the parameters of a time series model? Say that I have a model such as below: $ Y_t = X_t\beta + e_t$ (where $X_t$ may include lags of Y$_t$) I'd like…
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Getting cointegration vectors using Johansen method

I'm trying to understand better Johansen method so I developed an example 3.1 given by the book Likelihood-Based-Inference-Cointegrated-Autoregressive-Econometrics where we have three processes: $$X_{1t} = \sum_{i=1}^t \epsilon_{1i} +…
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VAR in levels for cointegrated data

I have read some paper that expresses that "recent works" show we can use a VAR model with raw data I(1) but there has to be cointegration. This means that there is no reason to difference the data for VAR modelling. Any paper reference about this?
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Can any sort of conclusion be made about the cointegration of $B, A$ given the cointegration test statistic of $A, B$?

It can be shown that, generally, the cointegration test statistic of $A, B \ne B,A$. I believe this to be true for all cointegration tests, so the particular test used is, perhaps, irrelevant. However, I have found that the two test statistics are…
d0rmLife
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Johansen test conditions and Breusch-Godfrey LM test

I am a student from Belgium and I am writing a thesis about the relationship between credit aggregates and property prices. I examine the Granger causality between the two variables and I also do some conintegration tests. I have a question about…
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Does zero correlation between 2 differenced series implies no cointegration between original series?

The question is related to this one. In this question @mpiktas gives an answer on why checking correlation is not enough but the answer doesn't seem completely correct to me for the following reason: If 2 time-series are cointegrated, i.e. there is…
Kochede
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Understanding of the specification of the Johansen Cointegration test in R

I've just started getting into cointegration testing in R using the "urca" and "tseries" packages last week and am still very confused about the different arguments, despite having read the manuals. This is of concern as my cointegration tests have…
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VAR or VECM for a mix of stationary and nonstationary variables?

I have 4 time series. One of them is stationary and rest of them are not. I need to find relation between them. I will use AIC to decide lag length. Should I use VAR or VECM to find relation between them? Will VAR or VECM give me relation in terms…
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