Statistical Analysis Stack Exchange
Statistical Analysis Stack Exchange

Questions tagged [polling]

46 questions
16
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3 answers

How do you decide the sample size when polling a large population?

Australia is currently having an election and understandably the media reports new political poll results daily. In a country of 22 million what percentage of the population would need to be sampled to get a statistically valid result? Is it…
brotchie
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14
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Can you explain why statistical tie is not naively rejected when $p_1-p_2 < 2 \,\text {MOE}$?

I need help explaining, and citing basic statistics texts, papers or other references, why it is generally incorrect to use the margin of error (MOE) statistic reported in polling to naively declare a statistical tie. An example: Candidate A leads…
somebody
12
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2 answers

How are margins of error related to confidence Intervals?

Can somebody tell me the difference between margins of error and confidence intervals? On the Internet I see these two meanings getting used interchangeably. Is it right to say, "Confidence intervals are shown as 1.96 and displayed on the graphs as…
Mintuz
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11
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3 answers

Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, 2014, among a random sample of 1,000 adults.…
Darren Cook
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9
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2 answers

Do confidence intervals apply to quota sampling?

French polling institutes are currently facing a major crisis after they recently published what can only be called the most ridiculous poll so far on the 2012 presidential election horse race. The French Senate is now considering to legislate on…
Fr.
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7
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6 answers

Should a multiple choice poll contain a neutral response?

I want to conduct a poll on the quality of a product containing several questions with five possible answers: Very poor Poor OK / No opinion Good Very good A colleague has advised me to ditch option 3 (OK / No opinion) to force people to…
Reinstate Monica - Goodbye SE
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7
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2 answers

Difference in means in multiple-choice poll

Let's say that N randomly chosen persons where asked a question where the answer could be in either of X categories. For example, 500 persons where asked which of the top 5 political parties they support the most. Each person can give only one…
Figaro
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6
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1 answer

Count data with largely varying sample sizes. Can I get anything from the data?

I only have categorical data, between two groups, with more than three categories per data set. Here are some actual examples of the data: Comparing (https://www.strawpoll.me/4380945/r) to (https://www.imdb.com/poll/M43-BGuMniY/results?ref_=po_sr)…
user301453
6
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1 answer

Opinion polls during which voters are allowed to see accumulated intermediate result

Has there been any systematic research on the opinion polls in which each voter can see the accumulated result up to the time of his/her vote? Many online polls show the live result, and new voters may be influenced from the result. I'm curious…
Lhion
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6
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4 answers

How to interpret the margin of error in a poll?

Recently the media reported on a political poll that stated that "46% of Republican voters in Mississippi think that interracial marriage should be illegal". One example story (of many around the 'net) is this one from the NY Daily News:…
Peter M
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4
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1 answer

Filtering random guessers from daily surveys

Assume we're polling or surveying people about their predictions regarding some future event. This survey is done every day, and the event they are asked to predict is the same every time. For example, each morning they are asked "Do you think it…
Chris Tarn
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4
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1 answer

Linear regression vs contingency table for poll results

Let's assume we made a survey where participants had to evaluate us on a scale from 1 to 5. We want to analyse how different variables (let's say gender or age for instance) have an effect on the answers. As we have discrete data, my first idea was…
David
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4
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1 answer

Layperson's guide to valid polling via Internet?

Sites such as Survey Monkey allow a layperson to easily create and administer a questionnaire. However, the only thing I know about polling is that you can't just create a questionnaire, let anyone answer it, and get valid results from it. Is there…
Larry OBrien
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4
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1 answer

Statistical significance of a difference between poll percentages with a small sample?

Analyzing my company’s internal survey results, I was stuck with calculating statistical difference between percentages. I usually used a Z-test as described below, but I am not sure whether it is suitable for very small samples (5 to 10…
user185547
4
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0 answers

How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these polls, see Les Décodeurs or Wikipedia. The…
Michaël Le Barbier
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