Questions tagged [highest-density-region]

The smallest region over which a density exceeds a threshold. More useful for summarizing multimodal distributions than other probability regions. Frequently used in Bayesian statistics ("Highest Posterior Density Regions"). The term in one dimension is "Highest Density Interval".

Here is the definition of the HDR, taken from Rob Hyndman's 1996 article "Computing and Graphing Highest Density Regions" in The American Statistician:

Let $f(x)$ be the density function of a random variable $X$. Then the $100(1-\alpha)\%$ HDR is the subset $R(f_\alpha)$ of the sample space of $X$ such that $$R(f_\alpha) = \{x\colon f(x)\geq f_\alpha\},$$ where $f_\alpha$ is the largest constant such that $$P\big(X\in R(f_\alpha)\big)\geq 1-\alpha.$$

Figure 1 from that article illustrates the difference between the 75% HDR (so $\alpha=0.25$) and various other 75% Probability Regions for a mixture of two normals ($c_q$ is the $q$-th quantile, $\mu$ the mean and $\sigma$ the standard deviation of the density):

HDR

The idea in one dimension is to take a horizontal line and shift it up (to $y=f_\alpha$) until the area above it and under the density is $1-\alpha$. Then the HDR $R_\alpha$ is the projection to the $x$ axis of this area.

Of course, all this works with any density, whether Bayesian posterior or other.

Here is a link to Rob Hyndman's page on HDRs. The article can be found on JSTOR Rob Hyndman's hdrcde package for R implements the algorithm from the papers and from subsequent work; Rob's page on the hdrcde package contains pointers to further literature.

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What is a Highest Density Region (HDR)?

In statistical inference, problem 9.6b, a "Highest Density Region (HDR)" is mentioned. However, I didn't find the definition of this term in the book. One similar term is the Highest Posterior Density (HPD). But it doesn't fit in this context, since…
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How to find 95% credible interval?

I am trying to compute the 95% credible interval of the following posterior distribution. I could not find the function in R for it but is the approach below correct? x <- seq(0.4,12,0.4) px <- c(0,0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.0002, 0.0037, 0.018, 0.06, 0.22…
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Find probability density intervals

I have the vector x <- c(1,2,3,4,5,5,5,6,6,6,6, 7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7, 7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,8,8,8,8,9,9,9,10) (my actual vector has a length of >10,000) and I would like to find the intervals where the 90% of the density…
ECII
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Chi-squared confidence interval for variance

When constructing, for example, a $90\%$ confidence interval for the population variance using the chi-squared distribution, we have: \begin{align} & P\left(a<\frac{(n-1)S^2}{\sigma^2}
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How to get multivariate credible interval estimate(s) / highest density regions (HDR) after MCMC

I'm estimating 15 parameters of my model using a Bayesian approach and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. My data after running a MCMC chain of 100000 samples is therefore a 100000×15 table of parameter values. I want to find 15-dimensional…
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How can I estimate the highest posterior density interval from a set of x,y values describing the PDF?

I'd like to estimate the Highest Posterior Density Interval (HPDI) of a calculated density function, rather than from empirical samples as is normally done (e.g., from an mcmc object). The situation is that I am aggregating two probability functions…
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Computing Highest Density Region given multivariate normal distribution with dimension $d$ > 3

Background: Suppose I have a unimodal symmetric distribution of dimension $d$ > 3 such as the multivariate normal distribution ~ N(0, H), where H is a known $d$-dimensional covariance matrix. Question: I am interested in finding the Highest Density…
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Highest probability set and density ratios equal to probability ratios

I came across a pretty result I had not seen before, and wondered if there were more examples For a random variable with an exponential distribution, if you want the highest probability set to contain all but $p$ of the probability, then you want…
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Confidence intervals for bootstrap and FPC

I have a population that I am technically sampling without replacement using a stratified design. The resultant ratio estimator of the sample mean in any stratum $i$ is $\hat{R}_{i} = (\sum y_{i})/(\sum x_{i})$. I also know that $x_{i} \in…
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Is there a theoretical motivation for how we construct confidence regions?

I've recently had to construct a confidence region for a vector of means $\theta \in \mathbb{R}^k$, and I realized my understanding of some concepts regarding the fundamentals of building confidence regions is lacking. Loosely speaking, my question…
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Quality measure for predictive Highest Density Regions

An alternative to point, interval and density forecasts/predictions would be "predictive highest density regions (pHDRs)", i.e., HDRs for the conditional density of a yet-unknown future observable. A natural question would be that of evaluating a…
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How to determine the cut off value of an hyperellipsoid in order to retrieve a single quantile of a multivariate normal distribution?

Introduction My goal is to retrieve the $\alpha$ quantile of a N(0, H) (multivariate normal) random variable $X$ where H is a known d-dimensional positive definite matrix (with $d >3$). In other words, my goal is to retrieve a single Value-at-Risk…
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Significant support of non-central chi-quared distribution

I want to find the support of a non-central chi-squared distribution ($99.9 \%$ of the energy). For example, If I have a Gaussian distribution with parameters $\mu$ and $\sigma$, I know $99.9 \%$ of the energy is in $[\mu - 3\sigma, \mu + 3\sigma]$.…
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How to determine the size of highest density region in high dimensions

I want to calculate the "size" of the highest density region (HDR) that contains p% of the total probability for multivariate samples of a Bayesian posterior obtained via MCMC. In 1D this "size" is the interval length of the HDR (the sum of the…
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Is the boundary of an HDR a region of the sample space with equal density value?

After reading this question, I read in the reference provided (Hyndman, 1996, The American Statistician) the following: It follows inmediately from the definition that the boundary of an HDR consists of those values of the sample space with equal…
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