Statistical Analysis Stack Exchange
Statistical Analysis Stack Exchange

Questions tagged [prediction]

Prediction of unknown random quantities, using a statistical model.

Prediction is contrasted with the more specific term in Cressie & Wikle Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data, p. 17:

Uncertainty in data, processes or parameters means that there will be uncertainty in conclusions. Statisticians call this drawing of conclusions in the presence of uncertainty, statistical inference (or just inference); in this book, inferences will be either estimation of fixed but unknown parameters, or prediction of unknown random quantities. (Notice that "forecasting," namely concluding something about the future, is a special case of "prediction.")

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What does AUC stand for and what is it?

Searched high and low and have not been able to find out what AUC, as in related to prediction, stands for or means.
josh
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Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning"?

As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a statistically correct definition not an intuitive or…
pitosalas
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Variable selection for predictive modeling really needed in 2016?

This question has been asked on CV some yrs ago, it seems worth a repost in light of 1) order of magnitude better computing technology (e.g. parallel computing, HPC etc) and 2) newer techniques, e.g. [3]. First, some context. Let's assume the goal…
horaceT
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Standard errors for lasso prediction using R

I'm trying to use a LASSO model for prediction, and I need to estimate standard errors. Surely someone has already written a package to do this. But as far as I can see, none of the packages on CRAN that do predictions using a LASSO will return…
Rob Hyndman
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Is this chart showing the likelihood of a terrorist attack statistically useful?

I'm seeing this image passed around a lot. I have a gut-feeling that the information provided this way is somehow incomplete or even erroneous, but I'm not well versed enough in statistics to respond. It makes me think of this xkcd comic, that even…
LCIII
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Using deep learning for time series prediction

I'm new in area of deep learning and for me first step was to read interesting articles from deeplearning.net site. In papers about deep learning, Hinton and others mostly talk about applying it to image problems. Can someone try to answer me can it…
Vedran
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Prediction interval for lmer() mixed effects model in R

I want to get a prediction interval around a prediction from a lmer() model. I have found some discussion about this: http://rstudio-pubs-static.s3.amazonaws.com/24365_2803ab8299934e888a60e7b16113f619.html http://glmm.wikidot.com/faq but they seem…
hossibley
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What is the difference between prediction and inference?

I'm reading through "An Introduction to Statistical Learning" . In chapter 2, they discuss the reason for estimating a function $f$. 2.1.1 Why Estimate $f$? There are two main reasons we may wish to estimate f : prediction and inference. We discuss…
user1592380
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Prediction in Cox regression

I am doing a multivariate Cox regression, I have my significant independent variables and beta values. The model fits to my data very well. Now, I would like to use my model and predict the survival of a new observation. I am unclear how to do this…
Marja
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If only prediction is of interest, why use lasso over ridge?

On page 223 in An Introduction to Statistical Learning, the authors summarise the differences between ridge regression and lasso. They provide an example (Figure 6.9) of when "lasso tends to outperform ridge regression in terms of bias, variance,…
Oliver Angelil
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How can I interpret a confusion matrix

I am using confusion matrix to check the performance of my classifier. I am using Scikit-Learn, I am little bit confused. How can I interpret the result from from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix >>> y_true = [2, 0, 2, 2, 0, 1] >>> y_pred…
user3378649
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Interpretation of simple predictions to odds ratios in logistic regression

I'm somewhat new to using logistic regression, and a bit confused by a discrepancy between my interpretations of the following values which I thought would be the same: exponentiated beta values predicted probability of the outcome using beta…
mike
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Expected prediction error - derivation

I am struggling to understand the derivation of the expected prediction error per below (ESL), especially on the derivation of 2.11 and 2.12 (conditioning, the step towards point-wise minimum). Any pointers or links much appreciated. Below I am…
user1885116
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Mean squared error vs. mean squared prediction error

What is the semantic difference between Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE)?
Ryan Zotti
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What non-Bayesian methods are there for predictive inference?

In Bayesian inference a predictive distribution for future data is derived by integrating out unknown parameters; integrating over the posterior distribution of those parameters gives a posterior predictive distribution—a distribution for future…
Scortchi - Reinstate Monica
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