An epidemic curve charts new cases of a health condition—typically an infectious disease—against time, and is used to develop insights about the incubation period, its evolution over time, and the degree of threat it poses against health resources (e.g., such a when number of new cases will exceed number of hospital beds).
Questions tagged [epidemic-curve]
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Is the COVID-19 pandemic curve a Gaussian curve?
We've all heard a lot about "flattening the curve". I was wondering if these curve – that look like bells – can be qualified as Gaussian despite the fact that there is a temporal dimension.
Samos
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Handling missing data in a time series
Consider an epidemic curve like the one below, or any other count-based time series data:
If, as it turns out from digging into the records, retrospective data collection, or just a series of case reports that got sent via carrier pigeon rather…
Fomite
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Understanding the relationship between R0, doubling time, and the epidemic curve
New to infectious disease epidemiology here and am just trying to understand some basics. I've read basic texts on SIR esque compartmental models. However, I'm struggling to understand how to align that theory with the numbers I see on the news…
gtech2297
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What's the correct regression model for a contagious disease like COVID-19?
I'm examining how COVID-19 has struck different states asymmetrically, with some in the early stages of growth and others in which the number of daily cases is now coming down. Here's what the national day-by-day data looks like, with a seven-day…
Chris Wilson
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How to estimate the change of rate of COVID-19 infections when accounting for vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility of mutated strains?
The world has reasonably accurate numbers of the transmissibility of the strains of COVID-19 that have ravaged humankind.
Now, two changes are afoot:
Some wealthy regions have access to limited quantities of vaccines (although most poor regions…
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looking for the probability of infection (for Covid19) vs the number of days to the onset of symptoms
I have been searching for a graph of the probability of infection (for covid 19) vs the number of days to the onset of symptoms. The following graph is taken from Namilae, et al (Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air…
cgo
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What is the relation between force of infection and infection rate?
There are different models to define the SIRD/SEIRD models of infection, for instance in one manual:
dS/dt = S - (α/N)SI
where S is the number of susceptible people, I the number of infected people, N the total population, and α the rate of…
Gigiux
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How to define the "R" in SIR model - removed or recovered?
I have been trying to learn more about the SIR model since hearing about it due to recent events. In the process, I have heard various contradictory things. So I am seeking clarity. Specifically, I want to make sure I understand the R in SIR…
user223366
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Calibration of an individual-based model of an epidemic
I am currently developing an individual-based (or agent-based) mathematical model (IBM) of an epidemic. I want to calibrate the transmission parameters in my IBM to match empirical data (epidemic curve time series) using least-squares. Suppose I…
crabcanon
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Multimodal SIR model
I am trying to model covid 19 infected number of cases, given current data in my region, the number of infected people is a graph with 3 peaks, is it possible for an SIR model to incorporate this? I am completely new to SIR modelling and currently…
Wallace
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how to estimate epidemic real infection data from partially observable new infections
I am not a Statistician and I would like to ask for help in understanding how to model the Italian Covid-19 infection data.
In particular, in Italy, every day t the number of new detected infections I(t) is reported. Thus a daily time series I(t) is…
Filippo Neri
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How to set a Richards model for epidemiology?
I have read in several papers that the Richards equation
is one of the most popular choices to model epidemiologic data. I translated the equation in R's terms:
y = r * x * (1-(x/k)^a)
with y being the infected number at time t, x being the…
Gigiux
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