Questions tagged [multiple-seasonalities]

Time series may exhibit multiple seasonalities, e.g., retail sales have intra-weekly and yearly seasonality, and electricity load (and price) has intra-daily, intra-weekly and yearly seasonality.

One standard way of modeling and forecasting time series with multiple seasonalities is the TBATS model (De Livera, Hyndman & Snyder, 2011, JASA). It is implemented in the tbats() function in the forecast package for R. See the related tag. More info can be found in section 11.1 of Forecasting: Principles and Practice (2nd ed.) by Athanasopoulos & Hyndman.

Alternatively, Bandara et al. (2021) propose an algorithm to decompose a time series into multiple additive seasonal components, analogously to the standard STL decomposition. The components can then be forecasted separately and added together. The MSTL algorithm is also implemented in the forecast package for R.

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"Frequency" value for seconds/minutes intervals data in R

I'm using R(3.1.1), and ARIMA models for forecasting. I would like to know what should be the "frequency" parameter, which is assigned in the ts() function, if im using time series data which is: separated by minutes and is spread over 180 days…
Apython
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Daily Time Series Analysis

I am trying to do time series analysis and am new to this field. I have daily count of an event from 2006-2009 and I want to fit a time series model to it. Here is the progress that I have made: timeSeriesObj =…
statBeginner
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How to decompose a time series with multiple seasonal components?

I have a time series that contains double seasonal components and I would like to decompose the series into the following time series components (trend, seasonal component 1, seasonal component 2 and irregular component). As far as I know, the STL…
ace
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Time Series Forecasting with Daily Data: ARIMA with regressor

I'm using a daily time series of sales data that contains about 2 years of daily data points. Based on some of the online-tutorials / examples I tried to identify the seasonality in the data. It seems that there is a weekly, monthly and probably a…
CKI
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Forecasting hourly time series with daily, weekly & annual periodicity

Major edit: I would like to say big thanks to Dave & Nick so far for their responses. The good news is that I got the loop to work (principle borrowed from Prof. Hydnman's post on batch forecasting). To consolidate the outstanding queries: a) How do…
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How to interpret TBATS model results and model diagnostics

I have got a half hourly demand data, which is a multi-seasonal time series. I used tbats in forecast package in R, and got results like this: TBATS(1, {5,4}, 0.838, {<48,6>, <336,6>, <17520,5>}) Does it mean the series is not necessarily to use…
Jeannie
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Interpreting time series decomposition using TBATS from R forecast package

I would like to decompose the following time series data into seasonal, trend, and residual componenets. The data is an hourly Cooling Energy Profile from a commercial building: TotalCoolingForDecompose.ts <- ts(TotalCoolingForDecompose,…
Clayton
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Two seasonal periods in ARIMA using R

I'm currently using R to predict a time series with these instructions: X <- ts(datas, frequency=24) X.arima <- Arima(X, order=c(2,1,0), seasonal=c(1,1,1)) pred <- predict(X.arima, n.ahead=24) plot.ts(pred$pred) As you can see I've data each hour,…
Alberto
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Is stl a good technique for forecasting, instead of Arima?

I have a long time series(data at hourly level, for 6 years). The data is showing an hourly, a weekly, a monthly as well as a yearly trend. For this data, should I try stl(Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess) or arima? I am using R for…
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Hourly predictions using time series

I'd like to build a model based on time series. I have a dataset with records every 30 minutes for three months. What is the difference between modeling these data with the following kinds of models? Extracting hour/week-day/month and use them as…
user3378649
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Multiple and long seasonality for a SARIMA model in R

While working on a big data set made of 10-minutes-points of information - i.e. 144 points per day, 1008 per week and 52560 per year - I encountered a few problem in R. The information concerns electricity load on a source substation during the…
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LSTM NN produces "shifted" forecast (low quality result)

I am trying to see the power of recurrent neural calculations. I give the NN just one feature, a timeseries datum one step in the past, and predict a current datum. The timeseries is however double-seasonal with considerably long ACF structure…
Alexey Burnakov
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Forecast time-series with two seasonal patterns

I am working on this problem for my research. The attached time-series represents the disk usage sampled every 5 mins. The series is a saw-tooth pattern since the disk usage keeps increasing and part of the disk gets backed up every 24 hrs. Thus…
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Time series analysis of electricity load questions

I have hourly data of electricity load (MW) that span 8 months (that is, 5760 data points). I also have predictions from a regression model for the same period. My goal is: to examine some properties of the time series (stationarity, seasonality,…
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Forecasting hourly time series

I have the following time series: Data is aviable here data The time series represent an hourly eletricity load. It starts at 2018-09-13 19:00:00 and end at 2018-12-23 15:00:00. I want to predict the next 36 hours values. I tried several method…
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