Questions tagged [macroeconomics]

Macroeconomics is a general branch of economics which studies the behavior of larger economic entities like countries. Macroeconomists often analyze time series of country specific data (e.g. inflation, output, unemployment) to understand economic relationships. The application of statistics, specifically econometrics, to macroeconomic questions is called macroeconometrics.

Macroeconomics is a general branch of economics which studies the behavior of larger economic entities like countries. Famous topics include the study of economic growth, business cycles, job markets and many more. Nowadays most macroeconomic models are built on the microeconomic foundations, i.e. individuals' and firms' behavior are modeled directly to then make predictions about the larger macroeconomic implications.

Macroeconomics in the past has mainly made use of time-series statistical methods like vector autoregression, error correction or ARIMA models. Whilst these remain important statistical tools for macroeconomists as well as more recent methods like MCMC models, more attention has been devoted to the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics in empirical work. Therefore also many microeconometric models are now used to test the predictions of macroeconomic models or to see how macroeconomic effects (like changes in the interest rate) affect smaller economic entities. This allows to circumvent the typical problems of macroeconometric analyses like small sample sizes or certain aggregation issues of the data.

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Irregularly spaced time-series in finance/economics research

In financial econometrics research, it is very common to investigate relationships between financial time series that take the form of daily data. The variable will often be made $I(0)$ by taking the log difference, for example;…
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How do economists quantify black market operations?

I was doing a lot of research into organized crime in East Asia for a project as a favor to an author-friend of mine, and I noticed that there were noted economists and journalists who, in conjunction, estimate the value of black market operations…
Aarthi
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Using non-stationary time series data in OLS regression

I am using 1983-2008 annual data to test if both Gini coefficients and gross national saving in China and the US can affect the US current account balance. The data seem to be non-stationary, but I am a beginner and only know the basic multiple…
Bruce
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Regression Developing Countries: GDP-Growth or GDP

For my master thesis I basically want to find out, why developing countries are stagnating. Next to theoretical aspects I also want to make a regression. I want to regress GDP or GDP growth as dependent variable on many independent variables, such…
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General-to-specific subset selection ("Autometrics") performing well in macroeconomics

I wonder why general-to-specific (GETS) subset selection and particularly the Autometrics algorithm are performing well in macroeconomic modelling/forecasting. How does Autometrics work? Doornik "Autometrics" (2009) offers a full description…
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Can you regress a variable on first differences on a variable on second differences?

I am working with GDP and Foreign Direct Investment (net stock) series. Net stock becomes stationary when taking first differences but this does not work for GDP. I need to take second differences for GDP. Should I use both variables with the same…
MCF
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What is "gaussianity", and how do you perform gaussianity testing in macroeconomic time-series?

I have several questions regarding the usual gaussianity (broad normality) assumptions in econometrics. Though people often check for normality (with apparently weak tests), I've seen just one example of "gaussianity" testing. 1.Is the "finite…
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Panel data model for exports and exchange rates

Suppose I have 4 years worth of monthly panel data on: exports of widgets $y$ from home country to 12 different nations (in US dollars) nominal exchange rates $x$ for those 12 countries (in US dollars per unit of local currency) domestic…
dimitriy
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Interpretation of the Impulse Response Function - VAR Estimation

I have some issues while discussing and interpreting this impulse response function (the graphics analysis). What do they mean and represent economically? What can the conclusions be? Basically initially I had the time series of government spending…
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Specifying deterministic terms in VECM in case of logarithmic varriables

I have constructed a VEC model to study real housing price dynamics in relation to demographic demand, real GDP and costs of mortgages. However, I am stuck with the choice of deterministic terms. The different options available regarding the choice…
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What is the advantage of transforming variables into First Difference of the Natural Log instead of % change from one period to the next?

I am dealing with macroeconomics time series data, and I build econometrics models. I am aware that some econometrists like to transform such variables as the First Difference in the Natural Log (FDNL) from one period to the next. I have more…
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Regressing nonstationary on stationary variable

I am trying to empirically estimate the coefficient for the Okun's law as a relationship between output growth and unemployment. I am using the simple gap version, where I regress real output growth (ind. variable) computed as a log difference of…
jan
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Overview Standard Error Correction in Time Series / Panel Literature

In microeconometrics, the time component is usually short (meaning that $T$ is fixed in $t=1,\ldots,T$). Serial correlation is here usually just seen as a negligible issue affecting the standard errors of a standard linear regression model (and not…
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Thomas Sargent's intuition as to why every covariance stationary series has an infinite-order Wold representation

In his classic book "Time Series Analysis", James Hamilton references Thomas Sargent (["Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory"], 1987, pp. 286-290) as a "nice sketch of the intuition behind this result [Wold decomposition]". Can someone explain Sargent's…
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VAR model with different time period for each series

I am trying to fit a Vector Autoregression model to forecast GDP growth Rate. I have 2 series, monthly GDP growth rate and a monthly economic indicator. For the monthly GDP growth rate, the latest growth rate I can use is from the previous…
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