Questions tagged [instrumental-variables]

Instrumental variables (IV) are used for causal inference with observational data in the presence of endogeneity when standard regression methods yield biased and inconsistent estimates.

Instrumental variables (IV) are used for causal inference with observational data in the presence of endogeneity (e.g. due to omitted variables or reverse causality) when standard regression methods would yield biased and inconsistent estimates. It is possible to consistently estimate the parameter of interest if there exists a variable $z$ (called an "instrument") which is highly correlated with the endogeneous variable $x$ but uncorrelated with the error term $u$ and which affects the outcome $y$ only through $x$: $$\begin{matrix} z & \rightarrow & x & \rightarrow & y \newline & & \uparrow & \nearrow & \newline & & u & \end{matrix}$$ Instrumental variables models like the standard IV estimator or 2-stage least squares utilize the exogenous variation in $z$ to separate the effect of $x$ on $y$ from the unwanted influence due the correlation between $x$ and $u$. The difficulty in applied work is to find good instruments. Weak correlation between $z$ and $x$ leads to inconsistent estimation as do even small correlations between $z$ and $u$. Natural experiments or randomized trials are the usual sources for good instruments.
For an overview and a list of examples see Angrist and Krueger (2001).

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What do "endogeneity" and "exogeneity" mean substantively?

I understand that the basic definition of endogeneity is that $$ X'\epsilon=0 $$ is not satisfied, but what does this mean in a real world sense? I read the Wikipedia article, with the supply and demand example, trying to make sense of it, but it…
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What is an instrumental variable?

Instrumental variables are becoming increasingly common in applied economics and statistics. For the uninitiated, can we have some non-technical answers to the following questions: What is an instrumental variable? When would one want to employ an…
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Explain in layperson's terms why predictive models aren't causally interpretable

Imagine that you are asked to infer some causal effect -- a change in an outcome $y$ in response to some variable $x$. But, the person asking for this directs you to use a predictive model to do so. Here's the setup: $x$ is confounded inasmuch as…
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Two stage models: Difference between Heckman models (to deal with sample selection) and Instrumental variables (to deal with endogenity)

I am trying to get my head around the difference between sample selection and endogeneity and in turn how Heckman models (to deal with sample selection) differ from instrumental variable regressions (to deal with endogeneity). Is it correct to say…
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Can a instrument variable equation be written as a directed acyclic graph (DAG)?

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are efficient visual representations of qualitative causal assumptions in statistical models, but can they be used to present a regular instrument variable equation (or other equations)? If so, how? If not, why?
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Literature on IV quantile regression

In the last months I have read intensively about quantile regression in preparation for my master thesis this summer. Specifically I have read most of Roger Koenker's 2005 book on the topic. Now I want to expand this existing knowledge to quantile…
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Probit two-stage least squares (2SLS)

I was told that it's possible to run a two-stage IV regression where the first stage is a probit and the second stage is an OLS. Is it possible to use 2SLS if the first stage is a probit but the second stage is a probit/poisson model?
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2SLS but second stage Probit

I am trying to use instrumental variables analysis to infer causality with observational data. I have come across a two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression which is likely to address the endogeneity issue in my research. However, I would like to…
Veronica
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What is the difference between effectiveness and efficacy in determining the benefit of therapy 'A' on condition 'B'?

The context of this question is within a health framework i.e. looking at one or more therapies in the treatment of a condition. It appears that even well respected researchers confuse the terms efficacy and effectiveness, using the terms…
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Why doesn't measurement error in the dependent variable bias the results?

When there is measurement error in the independent variable I have understood that the results will be biased against 0. When the dependent variable is measured with error they say it just affects the standard errors but this doesn't make much sense…
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How to do an instrumental variables regression with an instrumented interaction term in Stata?

I'm having a bit of a problem with Stata syntax. I need to do the following regression: $$y = ax + bz + c(xz) + e$$ where both $x$ and $z$ are instrumented and also the interaction term $xz$ uses the instrumented values of $x$ and $z$. Just…
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Is Just-Identified 2SLS Median-Unbiased?

In Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion (Angrist and Pischke, 2009: page 209) I read the following: (...) In fact, just-identified 2SLS (say, the simple Wald estimator) is approximately unbiased. This is hard to show formally…
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How to interpret second-stage coefficient in instrumental variables regression with a binary instrument and a binary endogenous variable?

(fairly long post, sorry. It includes lots of background info, so feel free to skip to the question at the bottom.) Intro: I am working on a project where we are trying to identify the effect of a binary endogenous variable, $x_1$, on a continuous…
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Standard errors of a two stage least squares regression, Stata

I use Stata. I am trying to replicate the ivreg output of a regression performing manually the first stage, predicting the instrument after the first stage and running the second stage regression with the instrument in place of the endogenous…
Charlie
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How do instrumental variables address selection bias?

I'm wondering how an instrumental variable addresses selection bias in regression. Here's the example I'm chewing on: In Mostly Harmless Econometrics, the authors discuss an IV regression relating to military service and earnings later in life. The…
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