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A few blogs suggest that at least the growth of covid cases (and deaths?) follows a logistic groth curve. See:

https://medium.com/katanaml/covid-19-growth-modeling-and-forecasting-with-prophet-2ff5ebd00c01

https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/covid-19/Published/Logistic-Growth-Model-for-COVID-19.nb

The first link uses fbrophet, something I used in the past (mainly in R). fbrophet can model logistic growth. Just curious, can it also model the decline, which follows (potentially) a negative exp function? Thanks.

cs0815
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1 Answers1

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A few blogs suggest that at least the growth of covid cases (and deaths?) follows a logistic groth curve.

...

Just curious, can it also model the decline

The total number of deaths that have occurred can not decline (at least not in this world).

It is the change in the number of deaths/cases, the new cases per day, which has a rise and decline.

When the total (cumulative) number of deaths/cases is modelled with a logistic curve (*), then the change in the number of deaths/cases is the derivative of the logistic curve, which is a squared hyperbolic secant function.

*An extremely simplistic model for a large virus outbreak and in my opinion not recommendable.

Sextus Empiricus
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