Questions tagged [mae]

The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is a point forecast accuracy measure. In the forecasting literature, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is used interchangeably.

For forecasts $\hat{y}_1, \dots, \hat{y}_n$ and corresponding actuals $y_1, \dots, y_n$, the MAE is defined as

$$\text{MAE}:=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n|\hat{y}_i-y_i|.$$

The MAE is not scale free, thus it is hard to compare across time series on different scales. The offers an alternative.

Note that the expected MAE is minimized by the median of the future distribution, not its mean. Therefore, optimizing forecasting methods to minimize the MAE may yield biased forecasts if the future distribution is asymmetric. This effect is most pronounced for and .

Alternatives to the MAE as a point forecast accuracy measure include the , the and the .

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Mean absolute error OR root mean squared error?

Why use Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) instead of Mean Absolute Error (MAE)?? Hi I've been investigating the error generated in a calculation - I initially calculated the error as a Root Mean Normalised Squared Error. Looking a little closer, I…
user1665220
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Why does minimizing the MAE lead to forecasting the median and not the mean?

From the Forecasting: Principles and Practice textbook by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, specifically the section on accuracy measurement: A forecast method that minimizes the MAE will lead to forecasts of the median, while minimizing…
Brans Ds
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Can someone give the intuition behind Mean Absolute Error and the Median?

I do not understand the intuition behind why the median is the best estimate if we are going to judge prediction accuracy using the Mean Absolute Error. Let's say you have a random variable $X$ and you want to predict what the next $X$ is. Let's…
confused
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Why use a certain measure of forecast error (e.g. MAD) as opposed to another (e.g. MSE)?

MAD = Mean Absolute Deviation MSE = Mean Squared Error I've seen suggestions from various places that MSE is used despite some undesirable qualities (e.g. http://www.stat.nus.edu.sg/~staxyc/T12.pdf, which states on p8 "It is commonly believed that…
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Can RMSE and MAE have the same value?

I am implementing cross validation and calculating error metrics such as RMSE, $R^2$, MAE, MSE, etc. Can RMSE and MAE have the same value?
Perl
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Why not using the R squared to measure forecast accuracy?

Why in literature usually the common accuracy measures like MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE ... are used. Why not using the $R^2$ (coefficient of determination)? I was thinking about the difference: By using the MSE i can compare the average of the forecast.…
NMe
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Mean Absolute Error (MAE) derivative

$MAE=|y_{pred} - y_{true}|$ $\dfrac{dMAE}{dy_{pred}} = ?$ I'm trying to understand how MAE works as a loss function in neural networks using backpropogation. I know it can be used directly in some APIs - e.g. Keras - however I see tensorflow doesn't…
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Why getting very high values for MSE/MAE/MAPE when R2 score is very good

I am applying different regression models (RF, Knn, etc) on some well-known datasets (bike sharing, diabetics, etc). The value of R2 is very good. From the R2 score, we can say that the model is working well (though this is not true for every case).…
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What is the best point forecast for lognormally distributed data?

I believe that the values I am forecasting are lognormally distributed with log-mean $\mu$ and log-variance $\sigma^2$. I need a point forecast (i.e., a one-number summary) that minimizes the expected error. What point forecast does so, if my error…
Stephan Kolassa
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Which is the best accuracy measuring criteria among rmse, mae & mape?

I have created training set and test set from my data. Then I performed auto.arima() and ets() in R on the training set to predict one-step ahead forecasts. These were then compared with the test set values to measure error, namely RMSE, MAPE &…
priyaj
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What is the best point forecast for gamma distributed data?

I believe that the values I am forecasting are gamma distributed with shape $k>0$ and scale $\theta>0$. I need a point forecast (i.e., a one-number summary) that minimizes the expected error. What point forecast does so, if my error measure is the…
Stephan Kolassa
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L1 (MAE) vs L2 (MSE) when data is normalized between 0 and 1

In most of the literature, it is emphasized that the L2 norm (MSE) gives a higher error when dealing with outliers compared to the L1 norm (MAE). But what happens when we normalize the data between 0 and 1? Doesn't normalizing the data reduce L2's…
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What is the point of Root Mean Absolute Error, RMAE, when evaluating forecasting errors?

RMAE is defined as the square root of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Presumably this is by analogy to Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) being defined as the square root of Mean Square Error (MSE). But what is the purpose of it, and why would anyone use…
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Is it possible to compute RMSE iteratively?

I am working on continuous evaluation of a regression model on streaming data from sensors. I think that Mean Absolute Error (MAE) can be found out iteratively similar to this link for averaging. $$ MAE_{t} = \left(\frac{N_t-1}{N_t}\right) …
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Regression models with comparable MAE but differing R²

I have trained two regression models on the same dataset. They perform with comparable mean absolut errors $MAE_{1,2} \approx 0.45$, but the coefficient of determination differs significantly with $R^2_1 \approx 0$ (well, that's bad!) in one case…
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