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I have a set of systems where uncertainties accumulate within it. These aren't always purely additive - sometimes they are, sometimes they aren't. I've had some success in using fan-charts, bar charts with confidence-intervals, and box plots for communicating single items.

But how can I show how uncertainties accumulate and combine - while also showing the data points around which the uncertainties lie?

Silverfish
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410 gone
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Apperently http://www.getguesstimate.com/ is what you are searching for.

They are offering spreadsheets for prediction that aggregate the uncertainty in each prediction. They also include some visualisations.

A nice example could be found here: http://www.getguesstimate.com/models/314

What can Guesstimate be used for?

Guesstimate is great at making estimates of things that aren't certain. You can forecast your earnings from a new venture, predict the amount of time a big project will take, or experiment with scientific theories. People have used it to optimize video games, understand lottery payoffs, and estimate the costs of their childcare.

MaxBenChrist
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