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Suppose $X$ and $Y$ are correlated with correlation coefficient $\rho$. They are jointly normal with means $\mu_X$ and $\mu_Y$ respectively. Then what is $E[X | Y \geq T]$? Feel free to add additional assumptions if necessary.

In the case where $X = Y$, we can use the formula here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truncated_normal_distribution#One_sided_truncation_(of_lower_tail)[4].

eagle34
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2 Answers2

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The same expectation can be written in terms of standard normal RVs, with the same correlation coefficient: $$\mathbb E[X|Y\geq t] = \sigma_x \mathbb E\left[\frac{X-\mu_x}{\sigma_x} \bigg| \frac{Y-\mu_y}{\sigma_y} \geq \frac{t-\mu_y}{\sigma_y}\right] + \mu_x = \sigma_x\mathbb E[X'|Y'>t']+\mu_x$$

Then, we can use the formula given in the wikipedia:

$$\mathbb E[X' | Y' > t']=\mathbb E[X' | Y'\geq t']=\rho \frac{\phi(t')}{1-\Phi(t')}$$

and, plug in. $\phi(z)$ and $\Phi(z)$ are the PDF and CDF of standard normal RV, respectively.

gunes
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  • Thanks! How do you get the first equality? – eagle34 Dec 12 '21 at 01:52
  • Actually, I think I see it. – eagle34 Dec 12 '21 at 02:18
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    @eagle34 the condition is simple, just subtract $\mu_y$ and divide by $\sigma_y$ both sides, as it won't change the inequality. For the expectation part, just multiply the inside by $\sigma_x$ and add $\mu_x$, it'll be equal to $X$. – gunes Dec 12 '21 at 11:41
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As a closed form solution has already been proposed, here is a relatively simple numerical algorithm to arrive at an answer as well.

  1. Generate a random uniform deviate between 0 and 1.

  2. Use this value in a software supplied Normal random deviate inversion algorithm to create a Normal deviate, say $Y_i$, for a Normal distribution with associated mean = $μ_y$ and sigma = $σ_y$.

  3. If $Y_i$ ≥ t, keep the sample point, otherwise return to Step 1.

  4. Compute $E[X|Y = Y_i ]$ per the well known formula $\mathbb E[X | Y_i ] = \mu_x + ρ\frac{\sigma_x}{\sigma_y}(Y_i -\mu_y) $. Source see, for example, this education reference.

  5. Repeat starting at Step 1 for a large number of iterations.

  6. Finally, calculate the average of all values obtained in Step 4.

Note, one can easily adjust Step 3 in this Monte Carlo simulation approach to handle more complex cases (like a range).

AJKOER
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