4

In other words, why is that when estimating in EViews

y = c ar(1)

yields a different coefficient for c when compared to

y = c y(-1)

although the coefficient for ar(1) and y(-1) are the same?

Richard Hardy
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Lucas
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    Since this is a general statistics help site rather than an EViews specific one (R is a far more common language here, but there are lots of others!) it would be helpful to write the equations out mathematically rather than just as EViews commands. We have some resources on how to use LaTeX here: https://stats.meta.stackexchange.com/questions/1604/instructions-on-how-to-use-latex-on-crossvalidated/1605#1605 – Silverfish May 25 '21 at 17:26
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    @Silverfish, I believe the mathematical equations underlying the commands are precisely the question here. – Christoph Hanck May 26 '21 at 12:57
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    @ChristophHanck A fair point! In which case it might have been helpful to include some sample output to illustrate what the commands actually do in EViews – Silverfish May 26 '21 at 15:55

1 Answers1

2

Consider the model \begin{align*}y_t&=\psi+\tilde{y}_t\\ \tilde{y}_t&=\rho \tilde{y}_{t-1}+u_t \end{align*} Rearrange this to $y_t-\psi=\tilde{y}_t$, insert and solve for $y_t$ to get $$ y_t=\psi(1-\rho)+\rho y_{t-1}+u_t $$ Compare this with the model $$ y_t=c+\rho y_{t-1}+u_t. $$ I do not have access to eviews, but I believe the first model corresponds to approach y c ar(1) (estimating $\psi$) and the second to y c y(-1).

I haven't checked thoroughly, but a similar discrepancy also seems to be inherent in the following approaches in R:

library(nlme)
library(dynlm)
y <- 2 + arima.sim(list(ar=0.8), n=10000)
gls(y~1, corr=corAR1(0.5,form=~1))
coef(dynlm(y~L(y)))

Output:

> gls(y~1, corr=corAR1(0.5,form=~1))
Generalized least squares fit by REML
  Model: y ~ 1 
  Data: NULL 
  Log-restricted-likelihood: -14269.74

Coefficients:
(Intercept) 
   2.044563 

Correlation Structure: AR(1)
 Formula: ~1 
 Parameter estimate(s):
      Phi 
0.7951246 
Degrees of freedom: 10000 total; 9999 residual
Residual standard error: 1.661907 

> coef(dynlm(y~L(y)))
(Intercept)        L(y) 
  0.4189489   0.7949498 

In particular, $2.044563\cdot(1-0.7951246)\approx0.4189489$ (discrepancies arise from gls using an iterative ML approach).

Christoph Hanck
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