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I am currently creating a difference-in-differences (DiD) model and have a few questions left: I am examining the effect of Airbnb-listings on the hospitality industry in major German cities. I have Bremen as control group with few Airbnb market penetration and Berlin with high penetration. The data is quarterly from 2010 to 2018 and Airbnb enters the market in 2014. The dependent variable is hotel revenue at the city level. I use the following base specification:

$$ y_{it} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} treat_{i} + \beta_2 time_{t} + \beta_{3} \left(treat_{i} \times time_{t} \right) + \epsilon_{it}, $$

  • (1) In my case the “treatment” is not binary, so do I add the Airbnb-effect through adding it like a control variable or do I have to multiply it with "treat" and "time" in the interaction term? (i.e., $\beta_{3}(treat_{i} \times time_{t} \times log(Airbnb)$)

  • (2) I think I have to control for seasonality. Do I have to add a term in the form of $treat_{i} \times quarter_{t}$ to account for the difference of these two cities?

  • (3) If the two cities have different trends from start, how do I implement a city-specific (quadratic) time trend to not violate the common trend assumption?

The basic methodology in my case is used in this paper (p. 11) but sadly I am inexperienced.

Thank you very much!

Thomas Bilach
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Markus R
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  • Welcome. Could you tell us more about how $treat_{i}$ is coded? Does "logairbnb" denote your intensity variable? Is it a continuous measure? Also, how different are your trends in the pre-period? – Thomas Bilach Nov 15 '20 at 00:51
  • Thanks for your reply. Currently "treat" is a Dummy (Bremen = 0, Berlin = 1). "logairbnb" is the log of the quarterly cumulative airbnb-listings in the corresponding city and therefore the intensity for the market penetration. There are also positive (and rising) airbnb values for bremen but since they are very low compared to Berlin I chose it as control group. I also checked for the trends - they are actually very similar and linear in the pre-period. "time" is also a dummy (0 = 2010 to 2013 and 1 = 2014 to 2018) – Markus R Nov 15 '20 at 01:52
  • So Bremen does have some intensity? – Thomas Bilach Nov 15 '20 at 21:20
  • Yes, in Bremen airbnb goes up to 375 in 2018q4 (Berlin ~ 14,100) (before log) – Markus R Nov 15 '20 at 23:34
  • Do you observe outcomes for hotels *within* your cities? Or, is everything aggregated up to the city level? – Thomas Bilach Nov 16 '20 at 20:15
  • I don't have data at the hotel level, so its aggregated up to the city level. – Markus R Nov 17 '20 at 18:35
  • Also, peruse some of the latest research by [Callaway et al. 2021](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.02637.pdf) involving continuous treatments in difference-in-differences settings. – Thomas Bilach Aug 27 '21 at 01:34

1 Answers1

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In my case the “treatment” is not binary, so do I add the airbnb-effect through adding it like a control variable or do I have to multiply it with "treat" and "time" in the interaction term? (“beta3(treat x time x logairbnb)”)

Your measure of intensity can replace your treatment indicator. Multiply it with your post-treatment variable. Here is the basic specification using explicit variable notation:

$$ \text{Revenue}_{ct} = \alpha + \gamma \text{Intensity}_{ct} + \lambda \text{Post}_{t} + \delta \left(\text{Intensity}_{ct} \times \text{Post}_{t} \right) + X'_{ct}\beta + \epsilon_{ct}, $$

where $\text{Intensity}_{ct}$ denotes a treated city's dosage (i.e., Airbnb supply). $\text{Post}_{t}$ is a post-treatment time dummy equal to 1 in all quarters after treatment commences in both treatment and control groups. Unless $\text{Intensity}_{ct}$ is time-invariant (i.e., varies across groups but not over time), you should add your estimate of intensity to your interaction term (i.e., $\gamma + \delta$) and you have your treatment effect.

I should note that only your treated cities should undergo some level of intensity, while your control group should represent the absence of intensity. For example, your intensity variable should equal 0 for Bremen and only take on positive values for Berlin. Thus, it can replace the binary treatment indicator. This is important, as your intensity variable should reflect reality as closely as possible. In your setting, you're assessing the dosage of Airbnb supply over time and across cities. Treatment can also represent a simple jump in intensity without any variation over time, in which case your variable would only be $c$-subscripted (e.g., $\text{Intensity}_{c}$). Either way, it should match the intensity experience in treated cities.

I encourage you to peruse the following article by Green and colleagues (2014). They investigated the effects of new legislation liberalizing the closing times of local bars on traffic accidents in England and Wales. Their main analysis employed the classical difference-in-differences equation with a dichotomous treatment. Later, they replaced the main treatment indicator with a dose treatment, which was a measure of the number of extended licenses within the local jurisdiction (see Table 5, p. 196). The only difference between their study and yours is their dose was time-invariant (i.e., varied across jurisdictions but not over time), and thus their main effect for intensity (dose) would be dropped if estimated via fixed effects. It wouldn't matter if the intensity variable was absorbed though, as only the interaction term is of substantive interest.

(2) I think I have to control for seasonality. Do I have to add a term in the form of “treat_i * quarter_t” to account for the difference of these two cities?

Not necessarily. Do you observe any cyclical patterns in the raw data? Again, the foregoing paper is a great resource (see Table 1 , column 4). In addition to assessing a does treatment, you could also multiply your city (group) effect with quarter dummies.

I would graphically inspect the trends in the raw data to see how your outcome is evolving through time. You could most certainly incorporate some categorical measure of "season" into your model with two or possibly four levels. Review the discussion section of this post. Some of the more experience members offer some great insight into more complicated ways of modeling time.

(3) If the two cities have different trends from start, how do I implement a city specific (quadratic) time trend to not violate the trend assumption?

How much of a divergence are you observing? I wouldn't recommend framing a pre-treatment difference in trend as a mere statistical problem that you must overcome. Your earlier comments indicate a stable inter-temporal evolution of the group trends. Maybe a statistical adjustment doesn't necessarily need to be a component of your main specification. That being said, it is worthwhile to see if your estimate of a treatment effect holds after the inclusion of city-specific linear (quadratic) time trends. In your case, this would amount to multiplying a city effect with a continuous linear and quadratic time trend variable. A linear trend might be more than enough, but that is for you to decide. Here is one specification:

$$ \text{Revenue}_{ct} = \alpha_{0c} + \alpha_{1c}t + \alpha_{2c}t^{2} + \gamma \text{Intensity}_{ct} + \lambda \text{Post}_{t} + \delta \left(\text{Intensity}_{ct} \times \text{Post}_{t} \right) + X'_{ct}\beta + \epsilon_{ct}, $$

where $\alpha_{0c}$ represents city fixed effects. I should note that with two cities, city fixed effects is equivalent to including a simple treatment indicator equal to 1 for Berlin, 0 otherwise. To add city-specific linear and quadratic time trends, multiply the city effect with continuous and quadratic time trend variables, separately. Don't go crazy, though. I wouldn't advise estimating this in one big fat equation. Try the main specification without the time trends, then build upon the base model. They can serve as a good robustness check down the road.

Now suppose you acquired data on multiple cities around the globe and the timing of treatment varied across jurisdictions. This equation can generalize to the following model, which is more closely aligned with what I am seeing in the paper you referenced:

$$ \text{Revenue}_{ct} = \alpha_{0c} + \alpha_{1c}t + \alpha_{2c}t^{2} + \lambda_{t} + \delta \text{Airbnb}_{ct} + X'_{ct}\beta + \epsilon_{ct}, $$

where you regress $\text{Revenue}_{ct}$ on a series of $C - 1$ dummies for cities (i.e., $\alpha_{0c}$), a series of $T - 1$ dummies for quarters (i.e., $\lambda_{t}$), and your intensity measure (i.e., $\text{Airbnb}_{ct}$). Two cities results in 1 city effect; 9 years (36 quarters) should result in 35 separate quarter effects. The city and quarter effects replace your main effects in the first specification, respectively. Your interaction term is now implicit in the coding of $\text{Airbnb}_{ct}$. To make this clear, $\text{Airbnb}_{ct} = \text{Intensity}_{ct} \times \text{After}_{t}$. You could instantiate this variable manually before tossing it into the model. I specified it explicitly to show how it is coded. Again, it still represents your interaction term for earlier. In essence, your measure of Airbnb supply should equal its precise dosage if it is a treated city and it is in the quarters after treatment goes into effect, 0 otherwise. I could have used the variable $\text{Post}_{t}$, but this equation is used more generally in settings where treatment may start and end at difference times in different cities, and thus "post-treatment" isn't standardized across jurisdictions. Again, your intensity measure should reflect reality as closely as possible.

It is rare to find a difference-in-differences application where all entities receive a dosage. In cases with a dichotomous treatment, the variable of interest should equal 1 if a city is treated and is in a post-treatment exposure epoch, 0 otherwise. In settings involving dosage, you should replace any city-quarter combination equal to unity with its appropriate dosage, 0 otherwise. Airbnb hit the market in 2014 in both cities, to which all cities experienced some jump in intensity in the last quarter of 2018. In sum, I would believe we need some explicit method of disambiguating the exposed from the unexposed. If Bremen, for example, experienced a low dosage post-shock, then you would be comparing cities with low versus high market penetration. Just be explicit about what variation you are trying to exploit. Do you know of any cities without any market penetration? This might not be a concern, but I would also consult with people in your specific field to gain further insight.

I was able to get my hands on the un-gated copy of a paper by Acemoglu and colleagues (2004) which assessed cross-state mobilization rates of men during World War II and its impact on female labor supply. Their "interaction" (see equation 8, p. 521) estimates whether states with higher mobilization rates (i.e., high versus low-mobilization states) during World War II saw a stronger rise in females' weeks worked from 1940 to 1950. Note: $m_{s}$ in equation 8 is a state's "mobilization rate" (i.e., continuous treatment); it varies across each state. They found higher mobilization rates were associated with an increase in female labor market participation. Peruse the top answer here for a more in-depth appraisal of this model.

As a final concern, I worry you have too few degrees of freedom to investigate more complex models. In a setting with 2 cities observed over 9 years, you only have 72 city-quarter observations. Including city-specific time trends is already very econometrically demanding, so don't overdue it. Moreover, you've said nothing thus far about the inclusion of covariates, so be careful as your ratio of observations-to-parameters is already scanty.

The use of difference-in-differences with dose treatments is becoming quite popular. In addition to the aforementioned paper, this article by Pedraja-Chaparro and colleagues (2015) would likely interest you. They use the classical difference-in-differences equation where treatment impacts all units at the same time. For other use cases of dose treatments, review page 18 this dissertation or this working paper.

Thomas Bilach
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  • Thanks a lot! I will apply your suggestions and give feedback if there are any uncertainties. – Markus R Nov 24 '20 at 22:17
  • For my regression I have now used this formula: $$ \text{Revenue}_{ct} = \alpha + \mu \left(\text{Treatment}_{ct} \times \text{Quarter}_{t} \right) + \gamma \text{Intensity}_{ct} + \lambda \text{Post}_{t} + \delta \left(\text{Intensity}_{ct} \times \text{Post}_{t} \right) + X'_{ct}\beta + \epsilon_{ct}, $$ The variables i use are almost the same as in the paper I linked in my question. I explain the changes of the coefficients with the omitted variable bias. I always choose model number 5, is there a big mistake somewhere or is that okay? The regression outputs: https://imgur.com/a/yOkoQzE – Markus R Nov 28 '20 at 02:35
  • Could you provide the exact page number? Is it the paper in your original post? – Thomas Bilach Nov 28 '20 at 02:55
  • I just referred to an older version of this paper, sorry, my mistake. I refer to Table 3 on page 27. [Link to paper](http://antonioviader.com/phocadownloadpap/userupload/toni/The%20Rise%20of%20the%20Sharing%20Economy%20Estimating%20the%20Impact%20of%20Airbnb%20on%20the%20Hotel%20Industry.pdf) – Markus R Nov 28 '20 at 03:27
  • I don’t see model 5? And is this your main specification? – Thomas Bilach Nov 28 '20 at 03:29
  • With model 5 I mean column (5) of the output I linked in my comment (the screenshot on imgur). Yes, my main specification I used for my regression is the one from the comment above. I added one control after another and decided that the use of all control variables fits the best. I did one regression with Berlin/Bremen and one with Hamburg/Bremen so I can compare and interpret the results. – Markus R Nov 28 '20 at 03:38
  • First, I wouldn’t recommend 5 models each with a different covariate. Why not juxtapose the base model without adjustments with one that includes all covariates? Then, maybe a third model that interacts treatment with quarter dummies (as a robustness check)? You aren’t beholden to me or my recommendations, but just be prepared to justify why you’re running a string of models, each with a different covariate. Second, I thought you only had two cities? Where did Hamburg come from? And why separate models for separate cities? This seems redundant. Let me know if I am missing something. – Thomas Bilach Nov 28 '20 at 04:40
  • I thought the whole thing like this: I have Bremen as a control group and use the exact same baseline model once with Berlin and once with Hamburg. In both cases I add the control variables one after the other. Then I select two final models, each of which contains all 5 variables (because i think they fit best), and compare and interpret the results of the two cities Berlin and Hamburg. The baseline model I used in each case is from my second comment and I also linked my results there. – Markus R Nov 29 '20 at 01:56
  • I wanted to make it as simple as possible and therefore made it like in the paper from my third comment (Table 3 on p. 27) and could refer to it. It is for my master thesis. Is this procedure (and the baseline model) "okay" or complete garbage? – Markus R Nov 29 '20 at 01:57
  • Is Hamburg a zero-intensity group? Or, is it a low intensity group? If so, why not combine all cities? The more cities the merrier. In general, everything you’re doing seems fine. By the way, in your second comment, treatment should only be $c$-subscripted (e.g., $\text{Treatment}_{c}$). It should index treated cities. Or, should I say, it should index your cities with high intensity. It does not vary over time. Interacting it with a continuous linear time trend or quarter dummies is a good robustness check. – Thomas Bilach Nov 29 '20 at 02:49
  • Ok, so I used the model from my second comment as robustness check. Is it valid, that the number of the quarter dummy is (4-1) and not (36-1) to take a simple seasonality into account? And my very last question: The model without this robustness check would be the same but without the "treatment x quarter" term, right? The treatment-dummy is included in my intensity variable since it is 0 for my control group, isn't it? Thank you! – Markus R Dec 08 '20 at 02:54
  • A four-level categorical variable should do the trick. For example, a shock is likely observed in quarter 3—every year. If you include a unique quarter effect for Q1-2012 and Q1-2013, then you're saying something is different about the quarters in *different years*. I don't think you're making this claim, thus multiply your city effect (i.e., treatment dummy) with a variable denoting quarters (*not* quarter-years). On the other hand, quarter dummies for *all periods* (i.e., time effects) is modeling the common shocks to all cities in every time period, hence why you need 36 separate effects. – Thomas Bilach Dec 09 '20 at 06:38