I am a recent graduate working as a Data Scientist and I often get lost in 'choosing' which model/models to use for a predictive task.
Just recently I was trying to build a prediction on time-series and the number of different models/methods available such as ARIMA, SARIMA, ARIMAX etc is pretty large. Not only that, but even though I can read more about them and have an 'educated guess' at which one to use; I still do not know the assumptions behind the models and whether they are suitable for a task at all. It is like a try and see if it works method.
So I am looking for some books/reference mostly concerned with traditional statistical inference models I can dive deep into and learn as much as I can about it. (I have a background in Mathematics and Statistics)
Thank you