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I have an MCMC procedure that samples latent variables $h_1, \dots, h_T$. It is based on Shephard and Pitt (1997), https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/84.3.653. Let $f$ be the true conditional posterior and $g$ a proposal density, and $h_{i:j}$ the current block for $t=i, \dots, j$. Then at MCMC iteration $r$ it consists of the following steps:

  1. Randomly partition the sequence of $h_t$ over $1, ..., T$ into $K+1$ blocks.

  2. Sample the latent variables of each block in turn, conditional on the remaining blocks:

    2a. Find the parameters of a proposal density $g$ based on $h_{i:j}^{(r-1)}$

    2b. Draw $h_{i:j}^*\sim g$

    2c. Draw $u_1\sim U(0,1)$

    i. If $u_1<f/g$, accept $h_{i:j}^*$ and proceed to Step 2d

    ii. If $u_1>f/g$, return to 2b

    2d. Draw $u_2\sim U(0,1)$, and let $$ r=\min\left\{1, \frac{f(h_{i:j}^*)\min[f(h_{i:j}^{(r-1)}), g(h_{i:j}^{(r-1)})]}{f(h_{i:j}^{(r-1)})\min[f(h_{i:j}^*), g(h_{i:j}^*)]}\right\} $$

    i. If $u_2<r$, let $h_{i:j}^{(r)}=h_{i:j}^*$

    ii. If $u_2>r$, let $h_{i:j}^{(r)}=h_{i:j}^{(r-1)}$

My problem is that my sampler occasionally cannot provide a good proposal using the proposal density, meaning that the accept-reject step rejects the proposals for a significant amount of attempts. This happens because the block is too big, but what is "too big" of course varies.

My question is: can I escape long spells of an unsuccessful accept-reject step without destroying the properties of the Markov chain (i.e., avoid screwing up the target)? I am thinking something along the lines of if $N$ proposals from the approximate model have been rejected, then go back to 2a, and perturb the starting point so that the approximate model is slightly different, or maybe split the block in two so that it is easier to find a proposal that is accepted.

hejseb
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    If accept reject fails after $N$ attempts, a Metropolis-Hastings step can be attempted instead with $g$ as proposal or with another proposal. – Xi'an Jul 03 '20 at 05:38
  • @Xi'an Thanks. So I do not have to account for the fact that I change proposal because the first has failed? My worry was that the resulting "overall" proposal was a kind of mixture, and that the probability of failure would creep up there somewhere. – hejseb Jul 03 '20 at 06:36
  • This was a legitimate concern but if the change of simulation method does not depend on the past realisation of the simulated value there is no bias in the resulting simulation. – Xi'an Jul 03 '20 at 08:17
  • @Xi'an Of course. Many thanks! – hejseb Jul 03 '20 at 09:23

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