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What is the best book to learn probability - Poisson, binomial, regression, etc.

I am working as an odds adjuster at a bookmaker and need to advance my skills to an odds compiler level.

Nick Cox
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O P
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    Perhaps few here know what the mathematical level required of an odds adjuster is, or that of an odds compiler: it would probably help you to get better answers if you elaborated a little. – Scortchi - Reinstate Monica Jan 10 '13 at 20:05
  • I understand. Hence, I stated poisson, binomial, etc. As these are what is required in the field. Most basic probability books cover these distributions at a very basic level. I am looking for, not an advanced but a complete book which would cover say "Poisson Regression" and not just "poisson" or "regression", separately. Again, appreciate all the help as at other forums I havent been getting many answers. – O P Jan 10 '13 at 20:18
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    Saying 'Poisson' doesn't help all that much - Poisson processes are covered in graduate level monographs & in 'Statistics for Dummies'. – Scortchi - Reinstate Monica Jan 10 '13 at 20:44
  • you are right. How about a probability book which will arm me with tools to deal with such a question "Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression, assuming pre-match odds were 5.00 - 4.00 - 1.80 for Win/Draw/Loss respectively" – O P Jan 10 '13 at 20:58

2 Answers2

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Grinstead & Snell is very good (& free):

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/book.html

(Note it doesn't cover statistical topics e.g. regression, just probability.)

As you mention Poisson regression in a comment:

Dobson, An Introduction to Generalized Models

Scortchi - Reinstate Monica
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You could find some of the following of interest:

Calculated-Bets-Computers-Gambling[1] and Mathletics-Gamblers-Enthusiasts-Mathematics-Basketball[2] books introducing probability directly in the gambling context.

The following might be too advanced for you, but maybe still useful:

Anthology of Statistics in Sports[3] and Statistical Reasoning in Sports[4]

kjetil b halvorsen
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    I added the post notice because this answer is unintelligible without following the links. Please at least indicate what you are recommending. *Much* better would be to include the reasons for your recommendations. – whuber Aug 31 '13 at 18:39