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Suppose we have ARIMA(2,3,2) in a study. How to write the final formula for this model? The parameters are: AR1 and AR2 for auto-regressive part, MA1 and MA2 for the moving average part.

Most of similar posts in this platform, are hard to understand by beginner. For example, I have been addressed to this link, but it is somehow complicated, too. So I decided to create this post to keep it simple as possible for future references.

Bromideh
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  • There are probably a dozen of other threads asking essentially the same question. You may look them up and see if they are helpful. – Richard Hardy Jun 22 '20 at 10:44
  • @richard-hardy, Dear Mr. Hardy thanks for your prompt feedback I looked at that link, but I'm afraid that it is so complicated. That's why I posted this question to make it very simple for beginners! – Bromideh Jun 22 '20 at 10:48
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    OK, but I would still make sure to check out the other threads which are plentiful. You may start [here](https://stats.stackexchange.com/search?q=%5Barima%5D+equation). – Richard Hardy Jun 22 '20 at 10:55

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Maybe your confusion comes from the fact that in the ARIMA(2,3,2) one considers three times differencing of the original series. My approach is as follows: Say your original time series is $Y_t$, the first differencing yields say another time series say $X_t$ and so on.We define them clearly as such:

$X_t=\overbrace{Y_t-Y_{t-1}}^\text{first differencing}$, $Z_t=\overbrace{X_t-X_{t-1}}^\text{second differencing}$, lastly $V_t=\overbrace{Z_t-Z_{t-1}}^\text{Third differencing}$, so now imagine we fit an ARMA(2,2) in the time series denoted as $V_t$. I use the names you propose for the coefficients and we get:

$V_t=\underbrace{AR_1V_{t-1} + AR_2V_{t-2}}_\text{Autoregressive part} + \underbrace{MA_1\epsilon_{t-1} + MA_2\epsilon_{t-2}}_\text{Moving Average Part} + \epsilon_t$, where $\epsilon_t \sim WN(0,\sigma^2)$ i.e $\epsilon_t$ is white noise.