I would like to calculate statistical significance between two samples of sports data - one is actual_wins and the other is expected_wins. actual_wins is a binary data series (0 = loss, 1 = win) and expected_wins is a data series of continuous probabilities.
I have read about t-tests and chi-squared/McNemar (related groups) tests but this data violates the assumptions of both methods as the former assumes a normal distribution and continuous data while the latter assumes categorical/binary data.
Is there any method to calculate significance with this data?
