2

I completed a linear regression for a model I was working on, and obtained that the $R^2$ value was $R^2 = 0.801$.

Can one assess a $\pm$ error from this value for future predictions? I.e., if I now use this linear model to predict against a new set of data, can I use this $R^2$ value to get a $\pm$ value on that prediction?

Stephan Kolassa
  • 95,027
  • 13
  • 197
  • 357
Thomas Moore
  • 1,375
  • 10
  • 17

2 Answers2

6

No, you can't, for two reasons.

To calculate PIs for multiple regression, take a look at this earlier thread: How to calculate the prediction interval for an OLS multiple regression?

Stephan Kolassa
  • 95,027
  • 13
  • 197
  • 357
4

You are talking about Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP).

It is fundamentally different than the $R^2$ value, and they are not related in the way you are hoping. Your $R^2$ value is the approximate amount of $y$-variance (dependent variable variance) explained by your $x$-matrix of covariates (independent variables). This is answering the question "how much variance can I explain with my given set of predictors?"

Your RMSEP (explained in this website on calibration) is the approximate error that your model will produce in predicting a future out-of-sample value. It is a metric used to answer "if I use my current model in the real-world, how much error will it produce while predicting?"

$R^2$ is used to determine how much variance a model explains. RMSEP is used to determine how well your model can predict out-of-sample values. They are not related.

ERT
  • 1,265
  • 3
  • 15