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E.g. is a linear process exchangeable? What about strict vs weak stationarity?

EDIT: for clarity, I'm asking if/when the sequence of data points $(x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_n)$ in the time series is exchangeable. I'm mainly interested because I am not sure that I've fully understood the concepts of exchangeability and stationarity, and could not find any other questions that address this directly.

kjetil b halvorsen
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funklute
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    Can you add a bit more information: are you asking about the exchangeability of the sequence of data points in one time-series? Or something else? (It might help to also briefly explain why you are asking this) – Juho Kokkala Jul 02 '18 at 13:28
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    Here is a similar question with answer: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/353722/exchangeability-of-group-effects/353739#353739 – kjetil b halvorsen Jul 02 '18 at 17:09

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Exchangeability of random variables $X_1,X_2, \dotsc,X_t$ means that all permutations of the random variables do have the same (multivariate) distribution. That is, let $\pi \colon \{1,2,\dotsc,t\} \mapsto \{1,2,\dotsc,t\}$ be a permutation of the index set. Then $$ (X_{\pi 1}, X_{\pi 2}, \dotsc, X_{\pi t}) \stackrel{D}{=} (X_1, X_2, \dotsc, X_t) $$ for all permutations $\pi$. This clearly implies (assuming existence) that means and variances are constant, so implies stationarity, but is much stronger than stationarity.

For a time series this really rules out typical models of serial correlation, none of those will be exchangeable, since for example $X_1$ must have the same correlation with $X_2$ as with $X_t$. The only models consistent with exchangeability are equicorrelation models$^\dagger$: All pairwise correlations must have the same correlation $\rho$. That include independence models with $\rho=0$. But, in reality, with only one realization observed of the time series $X_1,X_2, \dotsc,X_t$, there is no observable difference between an exchangeable model and an independence model (there might be strange counterexamples with $\rho=1$).

See also Exchangeability and IID random variables and Why are words in a document for bag-of-words model exchangeable but not independent?.

$^\dagger$ Assuming correlations exist. Otherwise we can assume all pairwise joints are identical. A multivariate Cauchy distribution can be exchangeable, but without correlations.

kjetil b halvorsen
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  • It will be really helpful for me, if you please can answer [this question](https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/457742/can-we-use-permutation-test-everywhere-to-check-difference-when-the-null-hypothe) which is also related to ex-changeability. – Md. Sabbir Ahmed Mar 31 '20 at 19:53