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I have a question on the definition of a random variable. I have read the tickets in a box interpretation here and here, which helped me immensely, but I have some doubts for the case in which the population is infinite. In particular, I am confused on what is the relation among infinite population-continuous/discrete random variables-measurability-zero probability events.

Following the discussion in the linked answer, suppose that my population $\Omega$ is an infinite list of paper slips (a generic paper slip is denoted by $\omega$) and in each paper slip I write numbers, e.g.,

            X  Y epsilon
paperslip1  5  1 0.5

paperslip1  5  0 0.2

paperslip1  6  0 0.3

...

1): In order to understand the measurability condition in the definition of a random variable, we firstly need to say which measure we are using. We need a probability measure, which a denote by $P: \mathcal{\Omega}\rightarrow \mathcal{F}$, where $\mathcal{\mathcal{F}}$ is a $\sigma$-algebra on $\Omega$. How do we construct it? The first naively idea that comes to my mind is by using the counting measure, e.g., assuming $\{5\}\in \mathcal{F}$ $$ P(\omega \in \Omega \text{ s.t. } X(\omega)\in \{5\})\equiv\frac{\text{ # paper slips with $5$ written on them}}{\text{# paper slips}}=\frac{\text{some number, not necessarily finite}}{\infty}=0 \text{ or }\frac{\infty}{\infty} $$ This is clearly not a probability measure. Hence, using the counting measure is wrong when we have an infinite population. Correct?


2): If my arguments in 1) are correct, then we need to find another way to construct a probability measure. The second idea that comes to my mind is by using the length measure, e.g., assuming $\{5\}\in \mathcal{F}$ $$ P(\omega \in \Omega \text{ s.t. } X(\omega)\in \{5\})\equiv\frac{\text{ Length of paper slips with $5$ written on them}}{\text{Length paper slips}}=\frac{\text{some finite number}}{\text{some finite number}}\in [0,1] $$ We can easily verify that all the properties that a probability measure should have are satisfied. Correct? Also, is it true that the length measure is always finite?


3): If my arguments in 2) are correct, could you help me to understand what is $\mathcal{F}$? It seems to me that all events are length measurable.


4): Within this context, is it correct to define continuous random variables, as random variables for which the length of singleton sets in $\mathcal{F}$ is zero? And, conversely, discrete random variables, as random variables for which the length of singleton sets in $\mathcal{F}$ is strictly positive?

TEX
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    The tickets-in-a-box model is an exceedingly accurate *conceptual* model. It is not intended to support the (usually misunderstood) concept of "infinitely many" tickets. Fortunately, such a concept is not needed. Standard mathematics usually avoids it altogether by taking limits. There is a branch of probability theory based on nonstandard analysis which doesn't require infinities at all: *every* "box" truly is finite. See http://www.stat.umn.edu/geyer/nsa/. – whuber Mar 08 '18 at 21:40
  • Thanks a lot. Are you say, e.g., that there is no easy way to conceptualise (in a sampling approach to inference) continuous random variables using an framework similar to the tickets-in-a-box model? Do we necessarily have to go to nonstandard analysis? Or, is the limit thing that you are mentioning, a possible easy way to proceed? – TEX Mar 08 '18 at 22:01
  • And if the limit approach can help me, could you walk me through? – TEX Mar 08 '18 at 22:07
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    I would love to, but I probably don't have the time right now. There's a wonderful account of the process for a particular example in Steven Shreve [*Stochastic Calculus for Finance* Vol. I](http://www.springer.com/us/book/9780387401003). Volume II, where measure theory is (finally) introduced, formalizes it and shows the connections between this limiting process and filtrations of sigma algebras. – whuber Mar 08 '18 at 22:15
  • thanks, as I have to buy the book: is it volume I or II? – TEX Mar 08 '18 at 22:41
  • If you could also suggest me the chapter of the book I should mostly focus on, I would be immensely grateful. I don't know anything of finance, time processes, etc, and the book seems focus on that. – TEX Mar 08 '18 at 23:03
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    Read chapter 2: it's available as a free PDF from the Springer site I linked to. That will quickly tell you whether the level and style of this text is to your liking. – whuber Mar 08 '18 at 23:20

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