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I need someone proficient enough in stats to help me clear up some confusion. The p-value is a conditional profitability. Given a null hypothesis to be true (mean difference in two groups to be 0), the p-value is the probability that chance alone caused the next observation to be outside of the statistical model. When the p-value is small, that is greater evidence against the null. Is up till that point correct?

hwhorf
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  • Yes, it is. "probability [of] obtaining a result more extreme" [given that the null is true] is better formulation of "chance alone caused the next observation to be outside of the statistical model". – January Jan 30 '18 at 17:42
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    Or to rephrase @January, it is the probability of observing a result as or more extreme, by chance alone, when the null hypothesis is true – HEITZ Jan 30 '18 at 21:48

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