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I downloaded data from yahoo to study all the statistics of the time series.

I then calculated the returns by using: $Ln(\frac{S_t}{S_{t}-1})$ using the adj close price in the following excel file:

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Then I calculated the daily mean using the =AVERAGE function, Variance using the =VAR function, Volatility, skewedness and kurtosis and I plot an histogram. To check if the time series comes from a Normal Distribution.

To check if it in fact comes from a normal distribution I can test it using different statistic tests such as:

• The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S) • Shapiro-Wilk (S-W)

• D’Agostino-Pearson omnibus test or

• Jarque-Bera test

Or I also saw to follow a normal distribution my data should have a skweness= 0 and kurtosis=3.

But because in my case my skewness is = -0.56 and kurtosis is= 8.7 I can find the Standard Deviation error for both and by definition:

If the absolute value of the skewness for the data is between +/- twice the standard error this indicates that the data is symmetric, and therefore normal.

Similarly if the absolute value of the kurtosis for the data is between +/- twice the standard error this is also an indication that the data is normal.

I am confused, is it enough to show the above conditions regarding the skweness and kurtosis to show that my data follows a Normal distribution or should I use the above statistic tests? And which one is better when we are dealing with log returns?

Another question that I have is I know that $r_t = N=(\mu,\sigma)$, we assume that $r_t$ is:

$r_t=\mu +\sigma\epsilon_t$

Normally distributed and independent with mean µ, and (stdev) σ.

$\epsilon-> N=(0,1)$ and $\sigma\epsilon_t=> N(0,\sigma)$

In my understanding the $r_t$ are the erros of the time series, and I found that this time series is called a constant return model but I am not sure if this is correct, can anyone clarify this?

So, this means that the model is then given by:

  1. Unconditional 1st moment mean: $E[r_t]=\mu$

  2. Unconditional 2ns moment variance $Var[r_t]=\sigma^2$

The 3rd and 4th moments are:

Skweness: $\frac{E[r_t-\mu^3]}{\sigma^3}$

Kurtosis: $\frac{E[r_t-\mu^4]}{\sigma^4}$

The model is then: $Ln(S_t)=Ln(S_{t-1})+\mu+\sigma\epsilon_t$ which is a randon walk.

Is this correct? I am a bit confused regarding the $r_t$ which I believe that represents the errors of this time series and the model given by: $Ln(S_t)=Ln(S_{t-1})+\mu+\sigma\epsilon_t$.

Also, I am not sure if the mean and variance uses the unconditional formula.

Can anyone help me on this?

Thanks

user290335
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  • "this indicates that the data is symmetric, and therefore normal." ... no it doesn't. Indeed, none of the things you mentioned can "show the data are normal" and it's probably not useful to test it formally because that [doesn't answer the right question](https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/2492/is-normality-testing-essentially-useless/2501#2501). – Glen_b Nov 20 '17 at 13:53
  • So, what can I do to examine the normality of the data? – user290335 Nov 20 '17 at 13:57

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