Question: Is it appropriate to use a multinomial logit if there is only a single outcome for all but one of the three possible outcomes? How could I reframe to incorporate the possible outcomes.
Background: I am modeling a three-horse (or elephant) race (Trump, Kasich, Cruz) for the state of New York (The Republican Party Primary), and I have a dataset with 62 records that looks like this:
County |Winner |Trump Votes|Cruz Votes | Kasich Votes | Demographic Variables...
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Cattaraugus |1 |1000 | 500 | 700 | .57
Erie |1 |39589 | 7964 | 13136 | .38
I was planning on using a multinomial logit (multinomial logistic regression) to determine significant independent variables, however ...
it just so happens that one horse / elephant (Trump) wins all but one of the data points (counties) in my dependent variable (Candidate). One of the three candidates does not show up in my dependent variable as a victor of any county, while the third wins only one county.
Would this be a poor sample/dataset to use a multinomial logit on?
If so ... I also have individual votes for each candidate so that they could be ranked as 1st, 2nd, 3rd or by some percentage margin etc. Is there be a better way to code these in this instance?
Note: Here is a little more background on my analysis via a question asked earlier
