We have a number of providers for a forecast of wind power generation per country per date.
Values are forecast up to one week ahead.
Forecasts may be compared with actual values of reported wind power generation for a particular date.
The error decreases as the forecast time distance decreases.
I would like to construct a simple model which will give me a level of belief allocated to each of the providers based on their forecast (and the history of their forecasts).
I am a Bayesian newbie, reading though Kruschke's excellent book, and thought that a linear regression where $x_{i}$ are the forecasts and $y$ is the actual would be appropriate - do you agree? Any tips for formulating this General Linear Model?
The previous forecast performance would give a distribution of error for each provider, which could be used as the prior? Then when new information is received, in this case a new forecast for a specific number of days ahead, we could update the overall probability of the forecast out-turn by considering all the ensemble probabilities. Is this a reasonable approach?