Let's say I have a wave, with frequency $\omega$ and phase $\phi$, of the form:
$$y(t)=1+A\sin(\omega t+\phi)$$
where $A<1$.
I have $N$ measures of $(\hat{y}_i, \hat{t}_i)$, that are assumed to be evenly spaced over one period. For practical purposes, $\hat{t}_i=t_i$ is assumed to be accurate, while $\hat{y}_i$ is measured with a normally distributed error : $\hat{y}_i= y_i + \epsilon_i$, with $\epsilon_i \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_y)$.
How well can I measure the phase of this sine wave? Edit: I'm trying to derive an analytic answer, to predict the results of future measurements. What I presume is the previous version of this question was asking how to fit to observed data, which is a different problem. Also, I figured out the answer and placed it in the comments, for anyone else who needs this.
I've tried constructing a Fisher matrix for the problem, but Mathematica thinks it's singular, and I can't see how to invert it either.