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All taken from「みんなの日本語」.

There is two「~そうだ」：
-「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess)
-「V-dictionnary そうだ」(hearsay).

And for「~らしい」too:
One for hearsay and one for conjecture/guess (and other for typical property).

For the diffenrence between「~らしい」(hearsay) vs「~そうだ」(hearsay) : I ask here.

So, what is the difference between「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess) and「~らしい」(conjecture/guess)?

I see big dark clouds
雨が降るらしい。=　雨が降りそうです。?
both translate "It looks like it's going to rain" ?

I didn't find in other topics the anwser. Can you help me?

Thanks.

Kenshiro
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3 Answers3

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My understanding of this matter is:

  • [masu-stem] + そうだ is used to tell an associative guess based on a sensory input from the target
  • [dictionary-form] + らしい is used to tell a conclusion from evidence, without direct contact with the target

We use ～しそうだ when we run into a situation that we can naturally associate an apparent scene we sense with another related probable event. For example, seeing a ball on the edge, we can imagine it falling (落ちそう); hearing a creak, we can imagine the machine is worn out inside (壊れそう); smelling a flavor, we can imagine a delicious taste (おいしそう). But whether it really happens, is unsure.

～らしい is more like a logical inference from a concrete evidence. When you see a kennel by the door, you can conclude that this house has a dog (飼っているらしい; but you didn't sense the dog). When you see a lot of people standing in line, you can conclude that this restaurant is delicious (おいしいらしい; but you didn't see they served food). When the speaker use it, it is sure enough for them not to require another direct confirmation, unless the evidence has an unsuspected flaw (say, the doghouse is what former residents left there). Actually, I feel that this ～らしい is more naturally reworded to ～に違いない "it must be; I bet".

Of course, the standard of what is naturally (automatically) associative and what only inferable by reasoning may vary. That is the point where their distinction starts to blur. But generally, the nearer you get to the object you judge, the more likely しそうだ is used; the more distant from your sensory range, the more らしい.

雨が降るらしい

This example does not sound having much place to use. If it means it is going to rain, someone must have an indirect evidence that accurately predicts rains. Maybe it can be used in a place a west wind is always precursor of rain, or when a traveler walking on an arid land finds a trace of river flow, and thinks that "it can rain here".

According to this paper reports that "conjecture" らしい has only one tenth frequency compared to "hearsay" らしい. I do have an impression that it is an extension of "hearsay" らしい, replaced a person with a physical evidence.

broccoli facemask
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  • In 大辞林, the first entry for らしい is ①なんらかの根拠や理由のある推量を表す。…と推定される。, and the first usage example given is「この空模様では雪にでもなるらしい」. From what you've written, it sounds like you wouldn't consider this a very natural usage. Is that correct, or is 雪にでもなるらしい different from 雨が降るらしい in some way that I'm not picking up on? Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "non-apparent" evidence, or why the evidence has to be non-apparent for らしい to work, since your examples with the doghouse and the long line seem to involve evidence that's readily apparent. Thanks in advance for any clarification you can provide! – Nanigashi Aug 28 '20 at 20:49
  • @Nanigashi Unfortunately, yes. The example sounds a little old for me if not wrong. I would appreciate input from another native speaker, too. For "non-apparent", I'll try to look for a better explanation. – broccoli facemask Aug 28 '20 at 23:49
  • Thanks so much for your reply. Really interesting! – Nanigashi Aug 29 '20 at 16:34
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    Actually, ["evidence" comes from the latin "evidens"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/evident#Etymology), which means "visible, **apparent**, clear, plain", so "non-apparent evidence" is contradictory in a way. – jarmanso7 Aug 29 '20 at 21:55
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I tend to see the らしい (conjecture/guess) as closer to ようです than そうです. That is to say,

  1. for そうです the conjecture is based on how something looks/physical appearence

  2. whereas with らしい/ようです your conjecture is based on other input different from pure physical look, such as information you already had, indirect evidence, or whatever.

To be honest, the difference is more between そうです and ようです than between そうです and らしい, so it's possible that らしい could be used like in 1. too, overlapping with そうです. I am not sure of this, but for what it's worth, I tend to see らしい closer to 2.

If it helps, I attach you the description of the grammar point らしい (conjecture) given in my textbook, 「上級へのとびら」, lesson 6:

enter image description here

jarmanso7
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  • Maybe,「~らしい」is in between「ます-stemそうだ」and「~ようだ」：-「ます-stemそうだ」conjecture without judgment "It looks like it's going to rain" -「~ようだ」conjecture with judgment "it seems to me that it's going to rain" -「~らしい」conjecture with a little more interpretation/judgment "It looks like it's going to rain" ("I think it's going to rain") or more "uncertainty" than「ます-stemそうだ」? or「~ようだ」? – Kenshiro Aug 25 '20 at 13:30
  • @Kenshiro I don't know. Also, I am not a native Engish speaker, so I can't grasp the difference between "it looks like" and "it seems". – jarmanso7 Aug 25 '20 at 16:28
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With the enlightement of the anwser of @jarmanso7 and some research , I have maybe understand the difference:

So, the difference between「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess) and「~らしい」(conjecture/guess), is, respectively, the same between conjecture and supposition.

Eventually, the same difference between「~らしい」(hearsay) vs「~そうだ」(hearsay).
「~らしい」(conjecture/guess) and「~ようだ」(conjecture/judgment), supposition and judgment(opinion, view).

Supposition : an advanced conjecture probable/plausible, a conjecture with a little more interpretation / judgment of the speaker.

The speakers see something
「ます-stemそうだ」(conjecture/guess) → "It looks like~" objectively
「~らしい」(conjecture/supposition) → "It seems / looks ~" (I think it's~) a bit subjective / interpretation
「~ようだ」(conjecture/judgment) → "It seems to me~" subjectively

What do you think?

Kenshiro
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